Verona vs Udinese – 26 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 22 Mon, Jan 26 · 19:45 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 14 pts · 21 played LDLLD

1–3Full time

Udinese 11th · 26 pts · 21 played DLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 22). Verona had 7.1 days of rest, Udinese 9.2 and had to travel 188 km.

Away travel188 kmRest days7.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Verona36%

Draw29%

Udinese36%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.22

Verona37%

Draw27%

Udinese36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Verona36%

Draw29%

Udinese35%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.19

Verona29%

Draw28%

Udinese42%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.36

Verona37%

Draw27%

Udinese36%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.38

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 52

Team strength

Verona

Udinese

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

15 AttackIn forecast 22

29 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Udinese

0.81 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

52% Scored inContext 76%

19% Clean sheetsContext 19%

11.43 ShotsContext 11.38

4.19 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.65

37% On target shareContext 31%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.74

58% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.00 Shots allowedContext 12.29

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.37

4.10 BlocksContext 3.24

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.74

64% Save rateContext 63%

40% PossessionIn forecast 46%

318 PassesContext 356

235 Accurate passesContext 286

74% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.78

16.10 FoulsContext 13.62

8.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.76

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 11.60

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

33% On target shareContext 28%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

53% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.10 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.30 BlocksContext 3.30

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

60% Save rateContext 62%

41% PossessionIn forecast 45%

337 PassesContext 349

255 Accurate passesContext 274

76% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.74

15.60 FoulsContext 14.70

8.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km167 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel188 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Jan	9.2Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	188 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	167 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

34S. Perilli(G)

23E. Ebosse 15V. Nelsson 19T. Slotsager

12D. Bradarić 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 8S. Serdar 14Pol Lirola

16G. Orban 9A. Sarr

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40M. Okoye(G)

13N. Bertola 31T. Kristensen 28O. Solet

33J. Zemura 38L. Miller 8J. Karlström 59A. Zanoli

14A. Atta 9K. Davis 32J. Ekkelenkamp

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Udinese+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.60

Udinese · Away 1.30points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-5
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 1.70

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Udinese
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Bologna	L 2–3 H	L 0–3 H
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 1–1 H
Napoli	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Torino	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	L 1–5 A
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Genoa	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Parma	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 H
Inter	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Como	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 A
Cagliari	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Sassuolo	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	13 of 60 · 0.65 per game	25 of 60 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Verona wins5 draws1 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.44 – 0.89 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets44% · 11%

25 Aug 2025Udinese1–1Verona
15 Mar 2025Udinese0–1Verona
4 Jan 2025Verona0–0Udinese
20 Apr 2024Verona1–0Udinese
3 Dec 2023Udinese3–3Verona
30 Jan 2023Udinese1–1Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.81	1.05
Conceded per game	1.62	1.57
Match goals	2.43	2.62	2.44
Over 1.5	71%	76%
Over 2.5	57%	48%	44%
Over 3.5	29%	24%
Both teams scored	52%	57%	50%
Clean sheets	19%	19%
Failed to score	48%	24%
Games	21	21

	Verona	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	2.90	2.60	2.44
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.40
Corners conceded	4.57	4.40
Match total	8.24	8.80	8.75
Over 8.5	52% 11/21	40% 8/20
Over 9.5	33% 7/21	35% 7/20
Over 10.5	19% 4/21	35% 7/20
Cards
Cards	2.29	1.81
Opponent cards	1.71	1.67
Match total	4.00	3.48	3.93
Over 3.5	52% 11/21	52% 11/21
Over 4.5	43% 9/21	29% 6/21

	Verona	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.50
Corners conceded	4.90	3.60
Match total	8.50	8.10	8.75
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.70
Match total	3.50	3.10	3.93
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 3.79

Red cards0.15league 0.16

Cards 5+35%league 36%

Fouls24.2league 25.6

Penalties0.21league 0.31

Home wins42%league 38%

Verona5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L3 May 25A · Inter0–13
D27 Jan 25A · Venezia1–11
L7 Apr 24H · Genoa1–23
D6 Mar 22A · Fiorentina1–14
L27 Aug 21H · Inter1–32

Udinese6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

W9 Dec 24A · Monza2–12
W25 Oct 24H · Cagliari2–02
D2 Mar 24H · Salernitana1–16
D17 Dec 23H · Sassuolo2–24
L27 Sep 23A · Napoli1–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.