VfB Stuttgart vs Celtic – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 17:45 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart 1st · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg4–1 0–1Full time

Celtic 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celtic. VfB Stuttgart had 4 days of rest, Celtic 6.9 and had to travel 1,202 km.

Away travel1,202 kmRest days4 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1

VfB Stuttgart62%

Draw20%

Celtic18%

Expected goals 2.38 – 1.23

VfB Stuttgart61%

Draw23%

Celtic17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

VfB Stuttgart63%

Draw19%

Celtic17%

Expected goals 2.38 – 1.18

VfB Stuttgart54%

Draw22%

Celtic24%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.38

VfB Stuttgart61%

Draw21%

Celtic18%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.13

Over 2.5 70% Both score 65% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

RefereeIrfan Peljto

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.56
Matches 39

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

Celtic

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

68 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

70 AttackIn forecast 74

58 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

Celtic

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.90 ShotsContext 14.90

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

40% On target shareContext 37%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.44

66% Box shareContext 76%

14% ConversionContext 15%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.22

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

3.40 BlocksContext 3.67

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

64% Save rateContext 67%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

522 PassesContext 519

440 Accurate passesContext 447

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.95

8.70 FoulsContext 10.70

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 7.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,549 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celtic

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,202 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,549 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 6	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	158

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

33A. Nübel(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 14L. Jaquez 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

18J. Leweling 30Chema Andrés 16A. Karazor 27B. Bouanani

26D. Undav

8Tiago Tomás

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12V. Sinisalo(G)

36M. Saracchi 6A. Trusty 47D. Murray 51C. Donovan

41R. Hatate 42C. McGregor

38D. Maeda 14L. McCowan 13H. Yang

9C. Adamu

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celtic Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart-0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Celtic+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home No home games yet this season.

Celtic · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws0 Celtic wins

Goals per game4.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Feb 2026Celtic1–4VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	4.00
Match goals	5.00	5.00	3.61
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	70%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	VfB Stuttgart	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.56
Conceded per game	1.40	2.11
Match goals	3.60	3.67	3.61
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	78%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	56%
Both teams scored	70%	78%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	22%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	8.86
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	1.00	1.00	3.43
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	VfB Stuttgart	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.80
Corners conceded	3.50	4.20
Match total	8.30	11.00	8.86
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.10
Opponent cards	1.00	1.20
Match total	2.70	3.30	3.43
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Irfan Peljto 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.63

Red cards0.23league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls22.1league 21.8

Penalties0.56league 0.00

Home wins51%league 13%

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

Celtic2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D23 Oct 24A · Atalanta0–01
L19 Sep 23A · Feyenoord0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.