VfB Stuttgart vs Viking – 9 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 9 · 17:45 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

3–1Full time

Viking

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Viking. VfB Stuttgart had 4.9 days of rest, Viking 13.9 and had to travel 1,155 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,155 kmRest days4.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

VfB Stuttgart81%

Draw12%

Viking7%

Expected goals 3.00 – 0.80

VfB Stuttgart80%

Draw13%

Viking7%

Expected goals 2.70 – 0.66

VfB Stuttgart81%

Draw12%

Viking7%

Expected goals 2.90 – 0.78

VfB Stuttgart75%

Draw15%

Viking10%

Expected goals 2.68 – 0.89

VfB Stuttgart81%

Draw12%

Viking7%

Expected goals 3.01 – 0.83

Over 2.5 73% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

18°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 51%

Referee · SerbiaNenad Minaković

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 23

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

Viking

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

70 AttackIn forecast 18

58 DefenceIn forecast 23

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Viking

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

Viking

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.99 xGVia Att/Def —

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.40 ShotsContext 12.00

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

40% On target shareContext 40%

9.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

65% Box shareContext 70%

16% ConversionContext 15%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.70 Shots allowedContext 14.75

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.50 BlocksContext 3.75

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

62% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

469 PassesContext 389

390 Accurate passesContext 298

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.90 FoulsContext 14.00

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 4 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart LW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km382 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

W4 SepH · 1.FC Köln4–12.1 xPts
L28 AugA · Bayern München1–50.5 xPts

Viking

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,155 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	Viking
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 4 Sep	13.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	382 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	34.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-2-4-1

1F. Bredlow(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch

6A. Stiller 21G. Prömel

10C. Führich 11B. El Khannouss 26D. Undav 18J. Leweling

9E. Demirović

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Viking Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Østbø(G)

28K. Haugen 27J. Daland 6G. Stensness 5H. Heggheim

7K. Askildsen 8J. Bell 29T. Moi

10Z. Tripić 20P. Christiansen 16H. Bjørdal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Viking Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.8 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Viking-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home No home games yet this season.

Viking · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	Viking	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.80
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	73%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	VfB Stuttgart	Viking	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	2.50
Conceded per game	2.10	1.50
Match goals	4.60	4.00	3.80
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	100%	73%
Over 3.5	80%	100%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	Viking	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	11.17
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.33
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	VfB Stuttgart	Viking	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	4.75
Corners conceded	5.20	4.50
Match total	11.50	9.25	11.17
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	2.25
Match total	3.50	4.25	4.33
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 2/4

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nenad Minaković Serbia · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.96league 4.17

Red cards0.13league 0.17

Cards 5+35%league 33%

Fouls25.2league 25.2

Penalties0.35league 0.33

Home wins61%league 50%

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

Viking

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.