VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfL Wolfsburg were slight favourites.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 40). VfL Wolfsburg had 13 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 12.8 and had to travel 312 km.
Away travel312 kmRest days13 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg50%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln25%
VfL Wolfsburg49%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln25%
VfL Wolfsburg50%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln25%
VfL Wolfsburg43%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln31%
VfL Wolfsburg49%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 64
Team strength
VfL Wolfsburg
1.FC Köln
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
50
AttackIn forecast
36
42
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL Wolfsburg1.FC Köln
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+1.10
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
14.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
28%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
53%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
—
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.50
BlocksContext
7.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
60%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
350
PassesContext
373
269
Accurate passesContext
300
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.50
FoulsContext
10.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
16.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
28%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
61%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.90
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.60
BlocksContext
5.22
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
396
PassesContext
391
314
Accurate passesContext
307
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.20
FoulsContext
13.30
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel312 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 12.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 312 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
21J. Mæhle
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
2K. Fischer
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
7A. Skov Olsen
9M. Amoura
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
4T. Hübers
33R. van den Berg
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
6E. Martel
29J. Thielmann
30M. Bülter
7G. Waldschmidt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
1.FC Köln · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins1 draws2 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–11.FC Köln
- 26 Aug 20231.FC Köln1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Feb 20231.FC Köln0–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 3 Sep 2022VfL Wolfsburg2–41.FC Köln
- 7 May 20221.FC Köln0–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 14 Dec 2021VfL Wolfsburg2–31.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 3.50 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 11.70 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.89
Red cards0.17league 0.37
Cards 5+31%league 58%
Fouls24.3league 23.1
Penalties0.22league 0.42
Home wins48%league 42%
VfL Wolfsburg5 with this referee
Record0-0-5
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L29 Mar 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–12
- L12 May 24A · Bayern München0–22
- L7 Apr 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–32
- L19 May 23A · SC Freiburg0–23
- L27 Aug 22A · RB Leipzig0–23
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Sep 23A · Werder Bremen1–21
- D18 Sep 22A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W19 Dec 21H · VfB Stuttgart1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
1.FC Köln2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
