VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin – 6 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 13 Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg 15th · 9 pts · 12 played WLLLD

3–1Full time

Union Berlin 12th · 15 pts · 12 played LDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfL Wolfsburg were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. VfL Wolfsburg had 5.9 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 178 km.

Away travel178 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

VfL Wolfsburg43%

Draw27%

Union Berlin30%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.23

VfL Wolfsburg43%

Draw27%

Union Berlin30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

VfL Wolfsburg44%

Draw27%

Union Berlin30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.21

VfL Wolfsburg36%

Draw27%

Union Berlin37%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.37

VfL Wolfsburg42%

Draw27%

Union Berlin31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolfsburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 59

Team strength

VfL Wolfsburg

Union Berlin

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

50 AttackIn forecast 42

42 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfL Wolfsburg

Union Berlin

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

75% Scored inContext 58%

8% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.17 ShotsContext 11.33

4.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

34% On target shareContext 29%

7.58 Shots in the boxContext 8.08

60% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.08 Shots allowedContext 13.58

4.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.58

4.18 BlocksContext 4.18

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.36

66% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 34%

395 PassesContext 288

317 Accurate passesContext 204

80% Pass accuracyContext 71%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.42 FoulsContext 13.00

10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.58

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

34% On target shareContext 30%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

61% Box shareContext 72%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.11

14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.20

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.33 BlocksContext 4.22

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

66% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 35%

404 PassesContext 290

327 Accurate passesContext 204

81% Pass accuracyContext 70%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.20 FoulsContext 12.80

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfL Wolfsburg

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km591 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Union Berlin

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel178 km511 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	178 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	591 km	511 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfL Wolfsburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Grabara(G)

25A. Zehnter 4K. Koulierakis 14J. Seelt 26S. Kumbedi

27M. Arnold 31Y. Gerhardt

39P. Wimmer 10L. Majer 24C. Eriksen

9M. Amoura

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Union Berlin Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1F. Rønnow(G)

39D. Köhn 34S. Nsoki 14L. Querfeld 5D. Doekhi 28C. Trimmel

13A. Schäfer 6A. Kemlein 19J. Haberer

10Ilyas Ansah 11W. Jeong

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfL Wolfsburg Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Union Berlin Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfL Wolfsburg-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Union Berlin+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

VfL Wolfsburg · Home 0.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 2.33

Union Berlin · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt	D 1–1 A	W 4–3 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 1–3 H	L 0–2 A
Werder Bremen	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
1899 Hoffenheim	L 2–3 H	L 2–4 H
Hamburger SV	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 H
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
1. FC Heidenheim	W 3–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	7 of 24 · 0.88 per game	7 of 24 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 VfL Wolfsburg wins1 draws4 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game0.63 – 1.00 Over 2.513% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

6 Apr 2025Union Berlin1–0VfL Wolfsburg
23 Nov 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–0Union Berlin
10 Feb 2024Union Berlin1–0VfL Wolfsburg
16 Sep 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–1Union Berlin
12 Mar 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–1Union Berlin
18 Sep 2022Union Berlin2–0VfL Wolfsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.25
Conceded per game	1.83	1.58
Match goals	3.00	2.83	2.74
Over 1.5	75%	67%
Over 2.5	58%	58%	52%
Over 3.5	42%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	8%	25%
Failed to score	25%	42%
Games	12	12

	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.80	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.75
Corners conceded	7.75	5.00
Match total	11.50	9.75	9.81
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	75% 9/12
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	58% 7/12
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.92	2.75
Opponent cards	1.92	2.17
Match total	3.84	4.92	4.12
Over 3.5	50% 6/12	75% 9/12
Over 4.5	42% 5/12	58% 7/12

	VfL Wolfsburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.60
Corners conceded	8.10	4.50
Match total	11.80	9.10	9.81
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.90
Opponent cards	1.60	2.20
Match total	3.30	5.10	4.12
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 3.94

Red cards0.19league 0.21

Cards 5+46%league 41%

Fouls23.7league 21.6

Penalties0.34league 0.33

Home wins49%league 44%

VfL Wolfsburg4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L2 Dec 23A · VfL Bochum1–32
D12 Mar 23H · Union Berlin1–11
L18 Sep 22A · Union Berlin0–20
L16 Apr 22A · Borussia Dortmund1–62

Union Berlin4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L8 Mar 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–23
D12 Mar 23A · VfL Wolfsburg1–14
L6 Nov 22A · Bayer Leverkusen0–54
W18 Sep 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.