Viking
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Viking2.0%fair odds 50.55
Draw4.9%fair odds 20.32
Bayern München93.1%fair odds 1.07
Expected goals0.71 – 4.36total 5.06
Likeliest score0–49.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Uplift
+41%
Expected goals
Baseline3.09Forecast4.36
Conceding Risk
−40%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.18Forecast0.71
Clean Sheet
+18.7 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline30.7%Forecast49.4%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Viking ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 13.3 |
| 1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 9.4 |
| 2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| 3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Viking goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–49.6%10.46
- 0–38.8%11.40
- 0–58.3%12.00
- 1–46.7%14.84
- 1–36.2%16.17
- 0–66.1%16.52
- 0–26.0%16.56
- 1–55.9%17.02
- 1–64.3%23.44
- 1–24.3%23.48
Winning margin
0.1%
Viking by 3+
fair 1,116.34
0.4%
Viking by 2
fair 252.13
1.5%
Viking by 1
fair 67.02
4.9%
Draw
fair 20.32
9.8%
Bayern München by 1
fair 10.25
15.2%
Bayern München by 2
fair 6.60
68.2%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
3%1
8%2
14%3
17%4
57%5+
Viking goals
49%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
Bayern München goals
1%0
6%1
12%2
18%3
63%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking win | 2.0% | 2.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 4.9% | 5.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Bayern München win | 93.1% | 91.9% | +1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 88.0% | 86.2% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.0% | 50.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Viking | 0.71 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 4.36 | 4.14 | +0.22 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Viking win2.0%50.55
- Draw4.9%20.32
- Bayern München win93.1%1.07
- Double chance Viking or draw6.9%14.49
- Double chance Viking or Bayern München95.1%1.05
- Double chance Bayern München or draw98.0%1.02
- Draw no bet Viking2.1%48.06
- Draw no bet Bayern München97.9%1.02
Goals
- Over 0.599.3%1.01
- Over 1.596.2%1.04
- Over 2.588.0%1.14
- Over 3.574.2%1.35
- Over 4.556.8%1.76
- Under 1.53.8%26.65
- Under 2.512.0%8.33
- Under 3.525.8%3.88
Both teams to score
- Yes50.0%2.00
- No50.0%2.00
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- Viking win and yes1.4%69.90
- Draw and yes4.2%23.91
- Bayern München win and yes44.4%2.25
Team goals
- Viking over 0.550.6%1.98
- Viking over 1.515.8%6.35
- Viking over 2.53.5%28.77
- Bayern München over 0.598.7%1.01
- Bayern München over 1.593.1%1.07
- Bayern München over 2.580.9%1.24
- Viking clean sheet1.3%77.69
- Bayern München clean sheet49.4%2.02
- Viking win to nil0.5%182.60
- Bayern München win to nil48.7%2.05
Handicap
- Viking −1.50.5%205.68
- Viking −2.50.1%1,116.34
- Bayern München +1.599.5%1.00
- Bayern München +2.599.9%1.00
- Bayern München −1.583.3%1.20
- Viking +1.516.7%6.00
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won73.7%
Avg chance given to result54.0%
1X2 Brier0.397
Over 2.5 called right68.4%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 45.3% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 66.1% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3968 | 0.4050 |
| Avg chance given to result | 54.0% | 54.3% |
| Favourite won | 73.7% | 63.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 1 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.