Viking vs Bayern München – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Lyse Arena, Stavanger

Viking 30th · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–3Full time

Bayern München 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 15). Bayern München usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München were without M. Neuer. Viking had 34.1 days of rest, Bayern München 3.2 and had to travel 1,264 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,264 kmRest days34.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d0 · 1

Viking2%

Draw5%

Bayern München93%

Expected goals 0.71 – 4.36

Viking3%

Draw8%

Bayern München89%

Expected goals 0.54 – 3.32

Viking2%

Draw5%

Bayern München93%

Expected goals 0.69 – 4.36

Viking1%

Draw3%

Bayern München96%

Expected goals 0.63 – 4.89

Viking3%

Draw5%

Bayern München92%

Expected goals 0.71 – 4.14

Over 2.5 88% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–4

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stavanger)

12°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 82%

RefereeGeorgi Nikolov Kabakov

Cards per match 7.0
Penalties per match 1.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Viking

Bayern München

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

18 AttackIn forecast 96

23 DefenceIn forecast 90

— Form indexContext 81

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Viking

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack+41%

Defense risk−40%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Viking

Bayern München

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

— xGVia Att/Def 2.86

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

— Goals minus xGContext +0.24

100% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 21.50

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.50

39% On target shareContext 40%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

69% Box shareContext 57%

14% ConversionContext 14%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.60

15.20 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.80 BlocksContext 3.71

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

73% Save rateContext 74%

45% PossessionIn forecast 70%

388 PassesContext 696

293 Accurate passesContext 626

76% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.67 Team ratingContext 7.26

13.80 FoulsContext 8.00

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 5 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Viking L

Rest34.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 0 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

L9 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–30.3 xPts

Bayern München DWWWD

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,264 km113 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 81 · 11 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
W10 SepH · Bodo/Glimt5–02.5 xPts
D5 SepA · FC Schalke 040–02.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Viking	Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	34.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep	3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,264 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	113 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Viking Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Østbø(G)

28K. Haugen 25H. Falchener 6G. Stensness 5H. Heggheim

7K. Askildsen 8J. Bell 16H. Bjørdal

10Z. Tripić 22E. Botheim 20P. Christiansen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40J. Urbig(G)

11N. Brown 3M. Kim 4J. Tah 27K. Laimer

8T. Bischof 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 42Lennart Karl 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Viking Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −1.1% of weighted minutes

DEF S. Bjørshol Rotation 6.75 Def −1.1%

5 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Bærtelsen, V. Berisha, K. A. Frimpong, M. Roseth

Bayern München Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −4.0% · Defence line −9.7% of weighted minutes

DEF M. Neuer Starter 6.90 Def −9.7%
ATT J. Musiala Rotation 6.86 Att −4.0%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Buchmann

Total impact vs full squads

Viking+0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bayern München-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Viking · Home No home games yet this season.

Bayern München · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Viking	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	5.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	5.00	5.06
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	88%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Viking	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.40
Conceded per game	2.00	1.10
Match goals	4.00	4.50	5.06
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	80%	88%
Over 3.5	100%	70%
Both teams scored	100%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	3	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Viking	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	4.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	9.00	9.10
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	3.75
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Viking	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.89
Corners conceded	4.40	4.44
Match total	9.20	11.33	9.10
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.00
Opponent cards	1.80	2.20
Match total	4.00	3.20	3.75
Over 3.5	40% 2/5	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Georgi Nikolov Kabakov 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.00league 3.60

Red cards1.00league 0.15

Cards 5+100%league 35%

Fouls19.0league 23.2

Penalties1.00league 0.15

Home wins100%league 60%

Viking

No previous matches with this referee.

Bayern München

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.