Villarreal vs Alaves – 10 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 10 · 15:15 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 3rd · 38 pts · 17 played WWWLW

3–1Full time

Alaves 14th · 19 pts · 18 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were clear favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 43). Villarreal had 6.9 days of rest, Alaves 5.9 and had to travel 388 km.

Away travel388 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Villarreal60%

Draw24%

Alaves16%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.82

Villarreal63%

Draw22%

Alaves15%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.89

Villarreal60%

Draw24%

Alaves16%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.82

Villarreal53%

Draw26%

Alaves21%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.92

Villarreal63%

Draw22%

Alaves15%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.89

Over 2.5 49% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.52
Matches 33

Team strength

Villarreal

Alaves

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

76 AttackIn forecast 48

73 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Alaves

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

88% Scored inContext 61%

41% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.94 ShotsContext 11.06

4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

38% On target shareContext 32%

8.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

68% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 8%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.93

11.94 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.61

4.67 BlocksContext 3.75

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.59

69% Save rateContext 69%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

404 PassesContext 421

339 Accurate passesContext 342

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.82 FoulsContext 15.17

11.18 Fouls sufferedContext 14.06

2.41 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 18 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 10.90

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

36% On target shareContext 31%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

65% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 6%

3.13 OffsidesContext 3.29

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.67 BlocksContext 4.00

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

58% Save rateContext 66%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

392 PassesContext 425

324 Accurate passesContext 349

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.90 FoulsContext 14.20

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km387 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel388 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	388 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	387 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 8J. Foyth 15S. Mouriño

20Alberto Moleiro 10Dani Parejo 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

9G. Mikautadze 22Ayoze Pérez

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 5Jon Pacheco 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez

10Carles Aleñá 18Jon Guridi 7Carlos Vicente

11Toni Martínez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alaves+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 2.44points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-1
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 0.67

Alaves · Away 0.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-6
Scored: 0.38
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Alaves
Elche	W 3–1 A	W 3–1 H
Barcelona	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Getafe	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Real Sociedad	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Espanyol	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 4–0 H	L 0–1 A
Valencia	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Real Betis	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Athletic Club	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Osasuna	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Girona	W 5–0 H	L 0–1 A
Oviedo	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Points	38 of 51 · 2.24 per game	16 of 51 · 0.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Villarreal wins2 draws3 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.88 – 1.25 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

8 Mar 2025Alaves1–0Villarreal
9 Nov 2024Villarreal3–0Alaves
10 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Villarreal
22 Oct 2023Villarreal1–1Alaves
30 Apr 2022Alaves2–1Villarreal
21 Dec 2021Villarreal5–2Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.83
Conceded per game	0.94	1.17
Match goals	2.94	2.00	2.64
Over 1.5	94%	56%
Over 2.5	53%	39%	49%
Over 3.5	35%	11%
Both teams scored	47%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	41%	17%
Failed to score	12%	39%
Games	17	18

	Villarreal	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	0.60
Conceded per game	1.10	1.30
Match goals	3.20	1.90	2.64
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.36	5.06
Corners conceded	4.57	4.88
Match total	8.93	9.94	9.55
Over 8.5	43% 6/14	63% 10/16
Over 9.5	43% 6/14	50% 8/16
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	50% 8/16
Cards
Cards	2.53	2.33
Opponent cards	1.94	2.22
Match total	4.47	4.55	4.36
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	78% 14/18
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	50% 9/18

	Villarreal	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	3.75
Corners conceded	4.56	5.75
Match total	7.78	9.50	9.55
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.70
Match total	4.50	4.20	4.36
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.09league 4.11

Red cards0.36league 0.27

Cards 5+67%league 45%

Fouls25.0league 24.5

Penalties0.52league 0.33

Home wins55%league 45%

Villarreal2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 2

W15 Aug 25H · Oviedo2–01
L8 Oct 23H · Las Palmas1–24

Alaves4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

L16 Mar 24A · Athletic Club0–23
W19 Jan 24H · Cadiz1–00
L29 Oct 23A · Atletico Madrid1–22
L22 Sep 23H · Athletic Club0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.