Villarreal vs Barcelona – 21 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 21 · 15:15 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 4th · 35 pts · 15 played WWWWW

0–2Full time

Barcelona 1st · 43 pts · 17 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were slight favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 73). Barcelona usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Villarreal had 15.1 days of rest, Barcelona 7.9 and had to travel 250 km.

Away travel250 kmRest days15.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d0 · 1

Villarreal25%

Draw26%

Barcelona49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.62

Villarreal27%

Draw26%

Barcelona47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.58

Villarreal26%

Draw26%

Barcelona48%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.57

Villarreal19%

Draw24%

Barcelona57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.82

Villarreal26%

Draw26%

Barcelona48%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.63

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 31

Team strength

Villarreal

Barcelona

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

76 AttackIn forecast 97

73 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Barcelona

2.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.88

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 2.28

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.60

93% Scored inContext 100%

47% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.93 ShotsContext 19.71

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.47

38% On target shareContext 38%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

67% Box shareContext 62%

16% ConversionContext 15%

3.40 OffsidesContext 2.64

11.40 Shots allowedContext 8.94

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.53

4.62 BlocksContext 2.57

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.35

73% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 68%

431 PassesContext 630

365 Accurate passesContext 563

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.07

12.00 FoulsContext 10.12

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.82

2.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 17 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 2.26

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.30 ShotsContext 17.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

36% On target shareContext 35%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

64% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 16%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.63

10.20 Shots allowedContext 9.30

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.11 BlocksContext 2.11

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

66% Save rateContext 56%

47% PossessionIn forecast 65%

423 PassesContext 633

356 Accurate passesContext 562

84% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.05

13.80 FoulsContext 9.30

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest15.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel250 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15.1La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	250 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.1	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

23Sergi Cardona 12Renato Veiga 4Rafa Marín 26Pau Navarro

20Alberto Moleiro 10Dani Parejo 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

22Ayoze Pérez 19N. Pépé

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Joan García(G)

3Alejandro Balde 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

21F. de Jong 24Eric García

11Raphinha 16Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal

7Ferran Torres

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal-0.6 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Barcelona+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 2.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.50

Barcelona · Away 2.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 2.63
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Barcelona
Getafe	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 H
Real Sociedad	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
Valencia	W 2–0 A	W 6–0 H
Real Betis	D 2–2 H	W 5–3 A
Real Madrid	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 A
Athletic Club	W 1–0 H	W 4–0 H
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	L 1–4 A
Osasuna	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	W 4–2 A
Girona	W 5–0 H	W 2–1 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 A
Points	32 of 42 · 2.29 per game	34 of 42 · 2.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Villarreal wins0 draws7 Barcelona wins

Goals per game1.60 – 2.70 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

18 May 2025Barcelona2–3Villarreal
22 Sep 2024Villarreal1–5Barcelona
27 Jan 2024Barcelona3–5Villarreal
27 Aug 2023Villarreal3–4Barcelona
12 Feb 2023Villarreal0–1Barcelona
20 Oct 2022Barcelona3–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.07	2.88
Conceded per game	0.87	1.18
Match goals	2.93	4.06	2.71
Over 1.5	93%	100%
Over 2.5	53%	88%	51%
Over 3.5	33%	59%
Both teams scored	47%	71%	54%
Clean sheets	47%	29%
Failed to score	7%	0%
Games	15	17

	Villarreal	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	2.80
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	3.00	4.30	2.71
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	90%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	70%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.56
Corners conceded	4.17	4.69
Match total	8.67	11.25	9.61
Over 8.5	42% 5/12	88% 14/16
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	56% 9/16
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	56% 9/16
Cards
Cards	2.53	1.41
Opponent cards	1.93	2.82
Match total	4.46	4.23	4.36
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	53% 9/17
Over 4.5	47% 7/15	47% 8/17

	Villarreal	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	6.43
Corners conceded	4.00	3.86
Match total	7.11	10.29	9.61
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	4.90	3.90	4.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 4.11

Red cards0.16league 0.28

Cards 5+29%league 45%

Fouls25.2league 24.6

Penalties0.29league 0.32

Home wins48%league 47%

Villarreal5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W25 Oct 25A · Valencia2–04
W25 May 25H · Sevilla4–20
L23 Apr 25A · Celta Vigo0–32
D16 Feb 24H · Getafe1–10
W18 Aug 23A · Mallorca1–04

Barcelona3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W9 Nov 25A · Celta Vigo4–25
W16 May 24A · Almeria2–01
W4 Nov 23A · Real Sociedad1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.