Villarreal
Attack+12%
Defense risk−14%
Our take
Villarreal were clear favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Villarreal. Villarreal were without N. Pépé and P. Gulácsi. Elche were without Buba Sangaré. Villarreal had 3.8 days of rest, Elche 6.1 and had to travel 193 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel193 kmRest days3.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Elche17%
Villarreal59%
Draw23%
Elche18%
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Elche17%
Villarreal53%
Draw24%
Elche23%
Villarreal61%
Draw21%
Elche17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
25°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 63%
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
Villarreal
Elche
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
76
AttackIn forecast
39
73
DefenceIn forecast
51
76
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack−9%
Defense risk+12%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
VillarrealElche
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.88
ShotsContext
11.50
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
39%
On target shareContext
40%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
66%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.63
Shots allowedContext
14.25
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
5.83
BlocksContext
3.00
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
76%
Save rateContext
55%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
580
PassesContext
490
517
Accurate passesContext
420
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.00
FoulsContext
14.25
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.70
ShotsContext
10.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
38%
On target shareContext
39%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
65%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.50
BlocksContext
2.67
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
60%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
561
PassesContext
463
496
Accurate passesContext
392
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.60
FoulsContext
15.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
LWWLW
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 9 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Elche
LDLWD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel193 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct | 6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 193 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
2Logan Costa
8J. Foyth
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
16Carlos Macia
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
47J. Morcillo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda
24A. Osorio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −19.6% · Defence line −11.9% of weighted minutes
- ATT N. Pépé Starter 7.07 Att −16.5%
- DEF P. Gulácsi Starter 7.02 Def −9.5%
- MID T. Buchanan Rotation 6.66 Att −3.0% Def −2.3%
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −0.5% · Defence line −10.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF Buba Sangaré Starter 6.37 Def −10.0%
- ATT Yago Santiago Depth 6.54 Att −0.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Elche+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Elche · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Deportivo La Coruna | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Racing Santander | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Villarreal wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.13
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 8 Mar 2026Villarreal2–1Elche
- 3 Jan 2026Elche1–3Villarreal
- 4 Feb 2023Elche3–1Villarreal
- 4 Sep 2022Villarreal4–0Elche
- 16 Jan 2022Elche1–0Villarreal
- 22 Sep 2021Villarreal4–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Villarreal | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.13 | 8.50 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 4.25 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Villarreal | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 7.89 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.36
Red cards0.22league 0.29
Cards 5+37%league 55%
Fouls25.1league 24.7
Penalties0.24league 0.35
Home wins37%league 44%
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D10 May 26A · Mallorca1–10
- W8 Mar 26H · Elche2–11
- L17 Jan 26A · Real Betis0–23
Elche3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 26H · Getafe1–03
- L8 Mar 26A · Villarreal1–21
- D18 Aug 25H · Real Betis1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal8 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Elche8 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
