Villarreal vs Girona – 24 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 18:30 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

5–0Full time

Girona 19th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were clear favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 42). Villarreal had 8.9 days of rest, Girona 9 and had to travel 335 km.

Away travel335 kmRest days8.9 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Villarreal64%

Draw22%

Girona14%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.82

Villarreal65%

Draw21%

Girona14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Villarreal64%

Draw22%

Girona14%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.82

Villarreal57%

Draw25%

Girona19%

Expected goals 1.76 – 0.92

Villarreal65%

Draw21%

Girona14%

Expected goals 2.10 – 0.86

Over 2.5 53% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 3

Team strength

Villarreal

Girona

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

76 AttackIn forecast 49

73 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Girona

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.40 ShotsContext 10.00

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 36%

11.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

73% Box shareContext 58%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.71

14.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.88 BlocksContext 2.56

4.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

77% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

419 PassesContext 476

356 Accurate passesContext 414

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.13 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.60 FoulsContext 12.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel335 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug	9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	335 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

23Sergi Cardona 4Rafa Marín 8J. Foyth 15S. Mouriño

21Yeremy Pino 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

29E. Eyong 19N. Pépé

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

25V. Krapyvtsov(G)

17D. Blind 18L. Krejčí 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

33Joel Roca 22J. Solís 21Y. Herrera 15V. Tsyhankov

8Portu

14D. Camara

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Girona-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Girona · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Villarreal wins1 draws1 Girona wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.83 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

10 May 2025Girona0–1Villarreal
1 Dec 2024Villarreal2–2Girona
14 May 2024Girona0–1Villarreal
27 Sep 2023Villarreal1–2Girona
20 May 2023Girona1–2Villarreal
22 Jan 2023Villarreal1–0Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Villarreal	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	2.00
Corners conceded	1.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	6.00	8.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.92
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Villarreal	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	3.70
Corners conceded	5.50	5.10
Match total	10.40	8.80	8.69
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.30
Opponent cards	1.30	2.20
Match total	3.40	3.50	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.40

Red cards0.00league 0.40

Cards 5+33%league 33%

Fouls27.3league 23.0

Penalties0.33league 0.33

Home wins33%league 47%

Villarreal1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W3 May 25H · Osasuna4–24

Girona1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 May 25A · Valladolid1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.