Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Villarreal63.9%fair odds 1.56
Draw21.9%fair odds 4.57
Girona14.2%fair odds 7.04
Expected goals1.97 – 0.82total 2.79
Likeliest score2–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Villarreal ↓ · Girona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Villarreal goals, columns Girona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%8.37
- 1–011.6%8.64
- 1–110.4%9.60
- 2–19.8%10.24
- 3–07.9%12.72
- 0–06.7%15.03
- 3–16.4%15.55
- 0–14.5%22.28
- 1–24.0%24.70
- 2–24.0%25.02
Winning margin
19.8%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 5.06
19.8%
Villarreal by 2
fair 5.05
24.4%
Villarreal by 1
fair 4.11
21.9%
Draw
fair 4.57
9.8%
Girona by 1
fair 10.22
3.4%
Girona by 2
fair 29.39
1.0%
Girona by 3+
fair 99.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Villarreal goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Girona goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 63.9% | 65.3% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 21.9% | 20.8% | +1.1 pp |
| Girona win | 14.2% | 13.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 56.8% | -3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.6% | 51.2% | -2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.97 | 2.10 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Girona | 0.82 | 0.86 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Villarreal win63.9%1.56
- Draw21.9%4.57
- Girona win14.2%7.04
- Double chance Villarreal or draw85.8%1.17
- Double chance Villarreal or Girona78.1%1.28
- Double chance Girona or draw36.1%2.77
- Draw no bet Villarreal81.8%1.22
- Draw no bet Girona18.2%5.50
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.3%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.62
- Under 1.522.7%4.40
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes48.6%2.06
- No51.4%1.95
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Villarreal win and yes26.5%3.78
- Draw and yes15.2%6.57
- Girona win and yes7.0%14.36
Team goals
- Villarreal over 0.586.1%1.16
- Villarreal over 1.558.7%1.70
- Villarreal over 2.531.6%3.16
- Girona over 0.555.9%1.79
- Girona over 1.519.8%5.06
- Girona over 2.55.0%19.98
- Villarreal clean sheet44.1%2.27
- Girona clean sheet13.9%7.20
- Villarreal win to nil37.5%2.67
- Girona win to nil7.2%13.82
Handicap
- Villarreal −1.539.6%2.53
- Villarreal −2.519.8%5.06
- Girona +1.560.4%1.66
- Girona +2.580.2%1.25
- Girona −1.54.4%22.66
- Villarreal +1.595.6%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won53.3%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.0% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.5% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 53.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 66.6% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.7% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.