Villarreal vs Levante – 20 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 20 · 17:30 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 16th · 5 pts · 6 played DLLLW

3–1Full time

Levante 17th · 5 pts · 5 played LDWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Villarreal had 2.9 days of rest, Levante 7.1 and had to travel 57 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel57 kmRest days2.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Villarreal56%

Draw22%

Levante23%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.21

Villarreal54%

Draw24%

Levante22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Villarreal56%

Draw22%

Levante22%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.18

Villarreal47%

Draw23%

Levante29%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.35

Villarreal55%

Draw22%

Levante24%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.24

Over 2.5 62% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 44%

Warm

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 44

Team strength

Villarreal

Levante

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

76 AttackIn forecast 55

73 DefenceIn forecast 41

26 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Levante

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

83% Scored inContext 40%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.17 ShotsContext 11.60

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

43% On target shareContext 36%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

70% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

7.75 BlocksContext 2.40

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

76% Save rateContext 68%

62% PossessionIn forecast 40%

591 PassesContext 352

527 Accurate passesContext 284

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.00 FoulsContext 10.00

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 5 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 14.40

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

44% On target shareContext 35%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

68% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.63

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

6.57 BlocksContext 2.88

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

70% Save rateContext 66%

58% PossessionIn forecast 42%

548 PassesContext 366

484 Accurate passesContext 303

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.80 FoulsContext 9.40

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal LLLLW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,865 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 26 · 3 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts
L14 SepH · Real Betis1–21.7 xPts
L8 SepA · Borussia Dortmund2–31.0 xPts
L5 SepH · Deportivo La Coruna2–32.2 xPts
L28 AugA · Alaves0–11.4 xPts

Levante LDWDL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel57 km935 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

L13 SepH · Barcelona2–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Malaga0–01.3 xPts
W29 AugH · Real Betis5–21.3 xPts
D24 AugA · Osasuna0–01.1 xPts
L16 AugA · Espanyol0–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Sep	7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,865 km	935 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	20.1	22.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 12Renato Veiga 6Pau Navarro 3A. Freeman

24N. Saliba 18P. Gueye

17T. Buchanan 10Alberto Moleiro 11I. Akhomach

22Ayoze Pérez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 2A. Mandi 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

8Jon Ander Olasagasti 20Oriol Rey 18E. Bardeli

24T. Fernandez 9Iván Romero 7Roger Brugué

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal-0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Levante+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Levante · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Levante
Malaga	W 3–1 A	D 0–0 A
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	W 5–2 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Villarreal wins0 draws1 Levante wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.83 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%

2 May 2026Villarreal5–1Levante
18 Feb 2026Levante0–1Villarreal
2 Apr 2022Levante2–0Villarreal
3 Jan 2022Villarreal5–0Levante
18 Apr 2021Levante1–5Villarreal
2 Jan 2021Villarreal2–1Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.40
Conceded per game	1.83	1.80
Match goals	3.50	3.20	3.19
Over 1.5	83%	60%
Over 2.5	83%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	67%	40%
Both teams scored	83%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	17%	60%
Games	6	5

	Villarreal	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.70
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	3.90	3.70	3.19
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	62%
Over 3.5	70%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	4.00
Corners conceded	4.17	7.00
Match total	11.50	11.00	9.61
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.00
Opponent cards	2.67	2.20
Match total	4.50	3.20	4.50
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	20% 1/5
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	20% 1/5

	Villarreal	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.44
Corners conceded	4.80	5.33
Match total	11.80	10.77	9.61
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.50
Opponent cards	2.10	1.60
Match total	3.80	3.10	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.30league 4.23

Red cards0.34league 0.26

Cards 5+66%league 53%

Fouls24.1league 24.9

Penalties0.27league 0.36

Home wins41%league 45%

Villarreal3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L13 May 26H · Sevilla2–32
W6 Dec 25H · Getafe2–02
D30 Sep 23A · Getafe0–05

Levante2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D27 Apr 26A · Espanyol0–03
D27 Sep 25A · Getafe1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.