Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were clear favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 48). Villarreal had 14 days of rest, Mallorca 13.1 and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmRest days14 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Villarreal60%
Draw23%
Mallorca16%
Villarreal62%
Draw22%
Mallorca16%
Villarreal60%
Draw24%
Mallorca16%
Villarreal53%
Draw26%
Mallorca21%
Villarreal62%
Draw22%
Mallorca16%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Villarreal
Mallorca
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
76
AttackIn forecast
50
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealMallorca
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
92%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.58
ShotsContext
10.58
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.55
68%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.83
11.75
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
5.10
BlocksContext
3.92
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
74%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
425
PassesContext
376
365
Accurate passesContext
302
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.50
FoulsContext
11.17
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
67%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.33
BlocksContext
3.80
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
70%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
387
PassesContext
386
325
Accurate passesContext
310
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.20
FoulsContext
11.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km484 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 484 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
4Rafa Marín
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
16T. Partey
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
22Ayoze Pérez
7Gerard Moreno
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
13L. Bergström(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
5Omar Mascarell
17J. Virgili
20Pablo Torre
6Antonio Sánchez
18Mateo Joseph
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Mallorca-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.50
Mallorca · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Villarreal wins2 draws2 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 20 Jan 2025Villarreal4–0Mallorca
- 14 Sep 2024Mallorca1–2Villarreal
- 20 Jan 2024Villarreal1–1Mallorca
- 18 Aug 2023Mallorca0–1Villarreal
- 18 Feb 2023Mallorca4–2Villarreal
- 6 Nov 2022Villarreal0–2Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Villarreal | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.17 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 4.41 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 6/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Villarreal | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 7.55 | 10.70 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.00
Red cards0.17league 0.26
Cards 5+67%league 44%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.00league 0.35
Home wins17%league 48%
VillarrealNo previous matches with this referee.
Mallorca1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25H · Celta Vigo1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal12 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Mallorca12 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
