Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 59). Villarreal had 6.9 days of rest, Osasuna 6 and had to travel 345 km.
Away travel345 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Villarreal52%
Draw26%
Osasuna21%
Villarreal53%
Draw25%
Osasuna22%
Villarreal52%
Draw26%
Osasuna22%
Villarreal45%
Draw28%
Osasuna27%
Villarreal54%
Draw25%
Osasuna21%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 24
Team strength
Villarreal
Osasuna
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
76
AttackIn forecast
50
73
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealOsasuna
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
75%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
9.25
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
35%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
7.00
Shots allowedContext
12.75
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
88%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
490
PassesContext
383
432
Accurate passesContext
307
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.25
FoulsContext
13.25
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.80
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
65%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.70
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
3.63
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
81%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
431
PassesContext
384
372
Accurate passesContext
314
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.60
FoulsContext
12.60
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel345 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 345 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
4Rafa Marín
8J. Foyth
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
16T. Partey
11I. Akhomach
9G. Mikautadze
19N. Pépé
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
3Juan Cruz
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
7Moncayola
6Lucas Torró
19V. Rosier
21Víctor Muñoz
17A. Budimir
14Rubén García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Osasuna-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Osasuna · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Villarreal wins2 draws3 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.20
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 3 May 2025Villarreal4–2Osasuna
- 24 Nov 2024Osasuna2–2Villarreal
- 25 May 2024Osasuna1–1Villarreal
- 26 Nov 2023Villarreal3–1Osasuna
- 19 Mar 2023Osasuna0–3Villarreal
- 17 Oct 2022Villarreal2–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Villarreal | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.00 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Villarreal | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.77 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 3.86
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+67%league 39%
Fouls27.7league 24.6
Penalties0.25league 0.32
Home wins29%league 48%
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W10 May 25A · Girona1–03
- W11 May 24H · Sevilla3–23
- D3 Dec 23A · Sevilla1–13
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Feb 24A · Real Sociedad1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal4 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Osasuna4 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
5
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
