Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano – 1 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 1 · 13:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 3rd · 20 pts · 10 played WWLDW

4–0Full time

Rayo Vallecano 8th · 14 pts · 10 played LLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 56). Rayo Vallecano usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Villarreal had 6.8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 5.7 and had to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days6.8 · 5.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Villarreal54%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano21%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.94

Villarreal56%

Draw24%

Rayo Vallecano20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Villarreal54%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano21%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.94

Villarreal47%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.06

Villarreal56%

Draw24%

Rayo Vallecano20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.99

Over 2.5 49% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 6

Team strength

Villarreal

Rayo Vallecano

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

76 AttackIn forecast 61

73 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Rayo Vallecano

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.80 ShotsContext 12.40

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

36% On target shareContext 36%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

67% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 10%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.75

11.60 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

5.13 BlocksContext 3.80

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

69% Save rateContext 74%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

420 PassesContext 437

359 Accurate passesContext 364

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.10 FoulsContext 12.60

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

30% On target shareContext 39%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

63% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.75

12.80 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.78 BlocksContext 3.67

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 73%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

366 PassesContext 452

304 Accurate passesContext 379

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.20 FoulsContext 12.80

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km114 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rayo Vallecano

Rest5.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel311 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct	5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	114 km	604 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.3	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 8J. Foyth 15S. Mouriño

20Alberto Moleiro 16T. Partey 14Santi Comesaña 19N. Pépé

9G. Mikautadze 7Gerard Moreno

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

6P. Ciss 4Pedro Díaz

18Álvaro García 7Isi Palazón 19Jorge de Frutos

9Alemão

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Rayo Vallecano-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 0.60

Rayo Vallecano · Away 1.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 H
Osasuna	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 A
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Girona	W 5–0 H	W 3–1 A
Points	13 of 18 · 2.17 per game	4 of 18 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Villarreal wins2 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.75 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

22 Feb 2025Rayo Vallecano0–1Villarreal
18 Dec 2024Villarreal1–1Rayo Vallecano
28 Apr 2024Villarreal3–0Rayo Vallecano
24 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Villarreal
28 May 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Villarreal
30 Jan 2023Villarreal0–1Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.80	2.20	2.62
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.80	2.20	2.62
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	6.40
Corners conceded	4.00	5.30
Match total	9.38	11.70	9.84
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.50
Match total	4.10	3.90	4.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

	Villarreal	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	6.56
Corners conceded	4.63	6.44
Match total	8.26	13.00	9.84
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	89% 8/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	5.10	4.50	4.38
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.83league 4.11

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls29.2league 24.8

Penalties0.17league 0.35

Home wins33%league 46%

Villarreal

No previous matches with this referee.

Rayo Vallecano

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.