Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Villarreal. Villarreal had 13.9 days of rest, Real Betis 13 and had to travel 584 km.
Away travel584 kmRest days13.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Villarreal45%
Draw28%
Real Betis27%
Villarreal48%
Draw26%
Real Betis26%
Villarreal47%
Draw27%
Real Betis26%
Villarreal38%
Draw28%
Real Betis34%
Villarreal46%
Draw26%
Real Betis27%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 114
Team strength
Villarreal
Real Betis
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
76
AttackIn forecast
79
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealReal Betis
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
88%
Scored inContext
100%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.13
ShotsContext
14.63
5.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
64%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
3.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.88
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
5.17
BlocksContext
2.25
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
69%
Save rateContext
82%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
431
PassesContext
477
371
Accurate passesContext
405
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.50
FoulsContext
8.75
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.50
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
32%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.75
BlocksContext
2.80
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
80%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
415
PassesContext
474
353
Accurate passesContext
407
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.20
FoulsContext
10.10
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel584 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 1,641 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
4Rafa Marín
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
14Santi Comesaña
10Dani Parejo
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
7Gerard Moreno
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
25Pau López(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal-1.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Real Betis+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
Real Betis · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Villarreal wins2 draws4 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 13 Apr 2025Real Betis1–2Villarreal
- 15 Dec 2024Villarreal1–2Real Betis
- 10 Mar 2024Real Betis2–3Villarreal
- 13 Aug 2023Villarreal1–2Real Betis
- 12 Mar 2023Villarreal1–1Real Betis
- 11 Sep 2022Real Betis1–0Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Villarreal | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.17 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 10.88 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.50 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Villarreal | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 10.20 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.29league 4.06
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.31
Home wins38%league 48%
Villarreal11 with this referee
Record2-6-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D18 Dec 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–15
- D19 May 24H · Real Madrid4–42
- W10 Mar 24A · Real Betis3–24
- L27 Aug 23H · Barcelona3–43
- L12 Feb 23H · Barcelona0–14
Real Betis10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds4
- W21 Apr 25A · Girona3–12
- W1 Mar 25H · Real Madrid2–13
- L18 Jan 25H · Alaves1–35
- W29 Sep 24H · Espanyol1–02
- L10 Mar 24H · Villarreal2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal8 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Real Betis8 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
6
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
