Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 53). Werder Bremen had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 259 km.
Away travel259 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen26%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen48%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Werder Bremen20%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen58%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen48%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Werder Bremen
Bayer Leverkusen
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
56
AttackIn forecast
87
45
DefenceIn forecast
79
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenBayer Leverkusen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.20
ShotsContext
10.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
38%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
72%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.90
BlocksContext
2.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
72%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
446
PassesContext
557
358
Accurate passesContext
481
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.00
8.80
FoulsContext
10.60
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km659 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel259 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 259 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 659 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
27F. Agu
31Karim Coulibaly
4N. Stark
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
24Patrice Čović
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
17M. Grüll
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
20Álex Grimaldo
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
16A. Tape
8R. Andrich
24Aleix García
35Christian Kofane
10M. Tillman
23N. Tella
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins2 draws3 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 8 Mar 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–2Werder Bremen
- 26 Oct 2024Werder Bremen2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–0Werder Bremen
- 25 Nov 2023Werder Bremen0–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 Mar 2023Werder Bremen2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 Sep 2022Bayer Leverkusen1–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Werder Bremen | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 4.00 | |
| Match total | — | 10.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Werder Bremen | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.50 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 5.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 5.10
Red cards0.33league 0.30
Cards 5+33%league 60%
Fouls19.3league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.40
Home wins67%league 30%
Werder BremenNo previous matches with this referee.
Bayer Leverkusen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W2 Feb 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
