Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
14th · 28 pts · 27 played
LWWLW
1–2Full time
RB Leipzig
4th · 50 pts · 27 played
DWWLW
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. Werder Bremen had 14 days of rest, RB Leipzig 14.8 and had to travel 310 km.
Away travel310 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Werder Bremen29%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig46%
Werder Bremen30%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig44%
Werder Bremen29%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig46%
Werder Bremen23%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig54%
Werder Bremen29%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig45%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 64
Team strength
Werder BremenRB Leipzig
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
56
AttackIn forecast
76
45
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenRB Leipzig
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.96
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
59%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
13.11
ShotsContext
15.22
4.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
30%
On target shareContext
38%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.96
62%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.74
OffsidesContext
2.24
12.93
Shots allowedContext
11.41
5.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.56
BlocksContext
3.38
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
64%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
478
PassesContext
494
395
Accurate passesContext
419
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.81
FoulsContext
9.26
9.48
Fouls sufferedContext
10.19
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
14.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
25%
On target shareContext
42%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
68%
Box shareContext
80%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.43
9.40
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.88
BlocksContext
2.33
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
62%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
518
PassesContext
535
433
Accurate passesContext
456
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.14
9.40
FoulsContext
9.30
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km303 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 303 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
27F. Agu
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
20R. Schmid
10L. Bittencourt
17M. Grüll
11J. Njinmah
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.77
RB Leipzig · Away
1.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | W 6–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game | 47 of 78 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Werder Bremen wins3 draws4 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.71
Over 2.543%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 23 Nov 2025RB Leipzig2–0Werder Bremen
- 10 May 2025Werder Bremen0–0RB Leipzig
- 12 Jan 2025RB Leipzig4–2Werder Bremen
- 11 May 2024RB Leipzig1–1Werder Bremen
- 19 Dec 2023Werder Bremen1–1RB Leipzig
- 14 May 2023RB Leipzig2–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.26 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 56% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 11% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.24 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 10.08 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.59 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.37 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.89 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.73
Red cards0.22league 0.18
Cards 5+36%league 37%
Fouls22.8league 20.5
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins45%league 45%
Werder Bremen9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L14 Dec 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–42
- W14 Dec 24A · FC St. Pauli2–03
- D31 Aug 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–02
- D5 Apr 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- W27 Jan 24H · SC Freiburg3–12
RB Leipzig7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.0.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W14 Jan 26H · SC Freiburg2–00
- W5 Apr 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–10
- D18 Jan 25A · VfL Bochum3–30
- D22 Sep 24A · FC St. Pauli0–01
- W9 Mar 24H · SV Darmstadt 982–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen27 games · scored 30 · conceded 47
2
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
6
46-60
6
11
61-75
12
10
76-90
RB Leipzig27 games · scored 53 · conceded 35
6
0-15
8
5
16-30
12
7
31-45
11
8
46-60
9
5
61-75
7
10
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
