Willem II vs Excelsior – 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 5 · 20:00 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Willem II 15th · 1 pts · 3 played LLD

0–3Full time

Excelsior 8th · 6 pts · 3 played WLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Excelsior were slight favourites.

Excelsior were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Excelsior. Willem II had 6.3 days of rest, Excelsior 7.2 and had to travel 59 km.

Away travel59 kmRest days6.3 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Willem II26%

Draw24%

Excelsior50%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.74

Willem II32%

Draw26%

Excelsior42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Willem II26%

Draw24%

Excelsior50%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.74

Willem II20%

Draw22%

Excelsior58%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.96

Willem II27%

Draw23%

Excelsior50%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.81

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tilburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.06
Matches 32

Team strength

Willem II

Excelsior

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

10 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

10 AttackIn forecast 21

9 DefenceIn forecast 18

18 Form indexContext 60

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Willem II

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Willem II

Excelsior

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

3.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

2.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.40

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.33 ShotsContext 12.00

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

24% On target shareContext 39%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

69% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 19%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

18.00 Shots allowedContext 13.67

8.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.67 BlocksContext 4.00

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

60% Save rateContext 75%

34% PossessionIn forecast 46%

285 PassesContext 407

205 Accurate passesContext 327

72% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.59 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.00 FoulsContext 11.00

8.33 Fouls sufferedContext 5.33

0.67 Yellow cardsContext 0.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

2.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.89 ShotsContext 13.00

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

32% On target shareContext 36%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

62% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63

18.22 Shots allowedContext 12.70

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

5.25 BlocksContext 3.80

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

65% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 50%

353 PassesContext 400

274 Accurate passesContext 317

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.78 FoulsContext 11.20

9.22 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Willem II LLD

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 18 · 1 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

D30 AugH · Heerenveen2–21.1 xPts
L15 AugH · NEC Nijmegen1–40.8 xPts
L8 AugA · GO Ahead Eagles1–40.9 xPts

Excelsior WLW

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel59 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 60 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

W29 AugH · Sparta Rotterdam2–11.8 xPts
L15 AugH · PSV Eindhoven1–21.0 xPts
W7 AugA · Cambuur4–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Willem II	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug	7.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	59 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Willem II Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 83M. Lemmens 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

6C. Twigt 8Kasper Boogaard

7J. Slory 19U. van Aalst 50Eser Gürbüz

9D. Haen

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 3R. Meissen 2E. da Silva Moreira

30Á. Þorsteinsson 20L. Hartjes 8I. Yegoian 7Aymen Sliti

19D. Garden

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Willem II Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Willem II+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Excelsior+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Willem II · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 3.00

Excelsior · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Willem II	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.33
Conceded per game	3.33	1.00
Match goals	4.67	3.33	2.95
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	33%
Both teams scored	100%	67%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	Willem II	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.20
Conceded per game	3.33	1.30
Match goals	4.67	3.50	2.95
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	3	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Willem II	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	5.33
Match total	9.00	10.33	10.62
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	0.67	0.67
Opponent cards	0.67	0.33
Match total	1.34	1.00	2.41
Over 3.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/3

	Willem II	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	3.67
Corners conceded	6.22	4.89
Match total	9.78	8.56	10.62
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	0.90	0.50
Opponent cards	1.30	1.30
Match total	2.20	1.80	2.41
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.94league 2.44

Red cards0.19league 0.06

Cards 5+19%league 14%

Fouls21.9league 20.6

Penalties0.06league 0.19

Home wins41%league 28%

Willem II3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

L8 Aug 26A · GO Ahead Eagles1–41
L16 Mar 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–12
L8 Dec 24H · Heerenveen1–22

Excelsior2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L2 Feb 24A · Almere City FC1–23
D26 Aug 23H · Fortuna Sittard2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.