Willem II
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Willem II25.8%fair odds 3.87
Draw24.7%fair odds 4.04
Excelsior49.4%fair odds 2.02
Expected goals1.21 – 1.74total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Willem II ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Willem II goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.63
- 1–29.6%10.42
- 0–18.5%11.71
- 0–28.0%12.56
- 2–16.6%15.07
- 0–05.8%17.20
- 2–25.8%17.28
- 1–05.7%17.47
- 1–35.6%17.91
- 0–34.6%21.59
Winning margin
3.4%
Willem II by 3+
fair 29.35
7.3%
Willem II by 2
fair 13.74
15.1%
Willem II by 1
fair 6.61
24.7%
Draw
fair 4.04
22.2%
Excelsior by 1
fair 4.51
15.2%
Excelsior by 2
fair 6.56
12.0%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 8.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Willem II goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Excelsior goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 25.8% | 26.7% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Excelsior win | 49.4% | 49.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 60.0% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 61.2% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Willem II | 1.21 | 1.29 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.74 | 1.81 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Willem II win25.8%3.87
- Draw24.7%4.04
- Excelsior win49.4%2.02
- Double chance Willem II or draw50.6%1.98
- Double chance Willem II or Excelsior75.3%1.33
- Double chance Excelsior or draw74.2%1.35
- Draw no bet Willem II34.3%2.91
- Draw no bet Excelsior65.7%1.52
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.9%1.25
- Over 2.556.6%1.77
- Over 3.534.2%2.93
- Over 4.517.7%5.67
- Under 1.520.1%4.98
- Under 2.543.4%2.30
- Under 3.565.8%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- Willem II win and yes14.2%7.06
- Draw and yes18.9%5.28
- Excelsior win and yes25.3%3.95
Team goals
- Willem II over 0.570.1%1.43
- Willem II over 1.533.9%2.95
- Willem II over 2.512.2%8.21
- Excelsior over 0.582.5%1.21
- Excelsior over 1.552.1%1.92
- Excelsior over 2.525.5%3.93
- Willem II clean sheet17.5%5.73
- Excelsior clean sheet29.9%3.34
- Willem II win to nil11.7%8.58
- Excelsior win to nil24.1%4.14
Handicap
- Willem II −1.510.7%9.36
- Willem II −2.53.4%29.35
- Excelsior +1.589.3%1.12
- Excelsior +2.596.6%1.04
- Excelsior −1.527.3%3.67
- Willem II +1.572.7%1.37
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right83.3%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.6% | 55.6% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 55.8% | 76.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.4% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5860 | 0.5878 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.3% | 42.9% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.