Wolves vs Sunderland – 2 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Sat, May 2 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 17 pts · 34 played WDLLL

1–1Full time

Sunderland 12th · 46 pts · 34 played LWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Sunderland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sunderland. Wolves had 7 days of rest, Sunderland 7.8 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Wolves35%

Draw26%

Sunderland40%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.54

Wolves39%

Draw27%

Sunderland33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Wolves36%

Draw26%

Sunderland38%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.49

Wolves28%

Draw25%

Sunderland47%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.72

Wolves35%

Draw26%

Sunderland39%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.49

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereePaul Tierney

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 122

Team strength

Wolves

Sunderland

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

41 AttackIn forecast 62

46 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Sunderland

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

47% Scored inContext 65%

12% Clean sheetsContext 29%

9.32 ShotsContext 10.09

3.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.48

34% On target shareContext 34%

6.03 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

61% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.77 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.97 Shots allowedContext 14.44

4.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

4.41 BlocksContext 4.47

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.34

62% Save rateContext 70%

44% PossessionIn forecast 45%

372 PassesContext 372

297 Accurate passesContext 293

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.97 FoulsContext 10.59

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.09

2.18 Yellow cardsContext 2.15

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

2.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.30 ShotsContext 10.70

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

33% On target shareContext 34%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

60% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.22 OffsidesContext 2.25

16.30 Shots allowedContext 15.40

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.44 BlocksContext 5.20

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

64% Save rateContext 63%

42% PossessionIn forecast 47%

346 PassesContext 364

273 Accurate passesContext 284

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.65

10.50 FoulsContext 11.70

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km280 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sunderland

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel262 km543 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr	7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	280 km	543 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

25D. Bentley(G)

24Toti Gomes 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 8João Gomes 7André 17Pedro Lima

9A. Armstrong 36Mateus Mané

14T. Arokodare

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 5D. Ballard 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

7C. Talbi 28E. Le Fée 32T. Hume

9B. Brobbey

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sunderland Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves-0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Sunderland+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.71points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-11
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.88

Sunderland · Away 1.00points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-8
Scored: 0.76
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Sunderland
Tottenham	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Leeds	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
West Ham	L 0–4 AW 3–0 H	L 1–3 AW 3–0 H
Brentford	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Aston Villa	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A	L 3–4 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Arsenal	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H	L 0–5 HW 1–0 A
Chelsea	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A	W 2–1 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	L 0–2 A
Fulham	L 0–3 A	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Points	17 of 99 · 0.52 per game	43 of 99 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Wolves wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

18 Oct 2025Sunderland2–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.71	1.06
Conceded per game	1.82	1.32
Match goals	2.53	2.38	2.97
Over 1.5	76%	71%
Over 2.5	47%	44%	57%
Over 3.5	26%	18%
Both teams scored	41%	44%	60%
Clean sheets	12%	29%
Failed to score	53%	35%
Games	34	34

	Wolves	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.70	1.90
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.97
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.48	3.56
Corners conceded	6.10	5.21
Match total	9.58	8.77	10.07
Over 8.5	71% 22/31	56% 19/34
Over 9.5	65% 20/31	44% 15/34
Over 10.5	39% 12/31	29% 10/34
Cards
Cards	2.26	2.21
Opponent cards	1.71	1.88
Match total	3.97	4.09	3.91
Over 3.5	59% 20/34	56% 19/34
Over 4.5	41% 14/34	44% 15/34

	Wolves	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	3.80
Corners conceded	5.44	6.40
Match total	8.66	10.20	10.07
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	4.40	4.30	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Paul Tierney 122 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 3.78

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 21.5

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins38%league 42%

Wolves10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Feb 26H · Arsenal2–22
L20 Apr 24H · Arsenal0–23
L30 Mar 24A · Aston Villa0–24
W21 Oct 23A · Bournemouth2–16
W15 Apr 23H · Brentford2–01

Sunderland1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W2 Feb 26H · Burnley3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.