Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
8th · 20 pts · 15 played
WDLDD
First leg1–1
1–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 12 pts · 15 played
DDLLL
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Zulte Waregem had 7.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7.1 and had to travel 38 km.
Away travel38 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Zulte Waregem47%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge27%
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
Zulte Waregem47%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge27%
Zulte Waregem40%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge33%
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Zulte WaregemCercle Brugge
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
27
AttackIn forecast
24
31
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemCercle Brugge
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
73%
Scored inContext
67%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.47
ShotsContext
12.80
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
9.47
67%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.64
14.53
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.86
BlocksContext
3.21
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
70%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
374
PassesContext
378
303
Accurate passesContext
293
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.27
FoulsContext
10.60
11.07
Fouls sufferedContext
12.73
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
39%
On target shareContext
28%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
71%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.78
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.56
BlocksContext
3.33
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
77%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
380
PassesContext
397
308
Accurate passesContext
312
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.10
FoulsContext
10.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km306 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel38 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Nov | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 38 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 306 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
4L. Lemoine
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
39M. Aké
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
2I. Diakité
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum
15G. Magnée
9S. Ngoura
10O. Diakité
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Cercle Brugge · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Dender | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Gent | W 4–1 H | L 2–4 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genk | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game | 11 of 42 · 0.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Zulte Waregem wins1 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Cercle Brugge1–1Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.73 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Zulte Waregem | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.71 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 9.15 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 8/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.46 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.33 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 3.89
Red cards0.75league 0.20
Cards 5+25%league 44%
Fouls21.3league 23.0
Penalties0.25league 0.29
Home wins75%league 43%
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem15 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
3
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Cercle Brugge15 games · scored 18 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
9
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
