Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Zulte Waregem
8th · 20 pts · 15 played
WDLDD
First leg1–1
1–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 12 pts · 15 played
DDLLL
Zulte Waregem46.9%fair odds 2.13
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.77
Cercle Brugge26.6%fair odds 3.76
Expected goals1.55 – 1.11total 2.66
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Zulte Waregem ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Zulte Waregem goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.90
- 1–010.2%9.82
- 2–19.3%10.72
- 2–08.4%11.91
- 0–07.6%13.15
- 0–17.1%14.07
- 1–26.7%14.97
- 2–25.2%19.28
- 3–14.8%20.70
- 3–04.3%23.01
Winning margin
9.8%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 10.15
14.4%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 6.95
22.6%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 4.42
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.77
16.0%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 6.25
7.4%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 13.55
3.2%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 31.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Zulte Waregem goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem win | 46.9% | 47.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 26.6% | 26.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 51.0% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 54.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.55 | 1.59 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Zulte Waregem win46.9%2.13
- Draw26.6%3.77
- Cercle Brugge win26.6%3.76
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw73.4%1.36
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or Cercle Brugge73.4%1.36
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw53.1%1.88
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem63.8%1.57
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge36.2%2.76
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.60
- Over 4.513.2%7.59
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.45
- Zulte Waregem win and yes21.6%4.64
- Draw and yes19.0%5.28
- Cercle Brugge win and yes13.0%7.68
Team goals
- Zulte Waregem over 0.578.8%1.27
- Zulte Waregem over 1.546.0%2.18
- Zulte Waregem over 2.520.4%4.89
- Cercle Brugge over 0.567.1%1.49
- Cercle Brugge over 1.530.5%3.28
- Cercle Brugge over 2.510.2%9.81
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet32.9%3.04
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet21.2%4.72
- Zulte Waregem win to nil25.3%3.95
- Cercle Brugge win to nil13.6%7.37
Handicap
- Zulte Waregem −1.524.2%4.12
- Zulte Waregem −2.59.8%10.15
- Cercle Brugge +1.575.8%1.32
- Cercle Brugge +2.590.2%1.11
- Cercle Brugge −1.510.6%9.46
- Zulte Waregem +1.589.4%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored122
Favourite won45.9%
Avg chance given to result38.3%
1X2 Brier0.612
Over 2.5 called right51.6%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 65 | 44.9% | 36.9% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 84 of 122 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6154 | 0.6089 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.4% | 39.2% |
| Favourite won | 45.2% | 47.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 84 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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- ✗Standard Liege 0–0 Zulte Waregem42·28·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 122 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.