Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
14th · 29 pts · 29 played
LLLLL
First leg2–1
1–0Full time
Charleroi
11th · 34 pts · 29 played
LLLDL
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Charleroi. Zulte Waregem had 8.9 days of rest, Charleroi 8.1 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw26%
Charleroi33%
Zulte Waregem42%
Draw27%
Charleroi31%
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw26%
Charleroi33%
Zulte Waregem34%
Draw26%
Charleroi40%
Zulte Waregem42%
Draw26%
Charleroi33%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 42
Team strength
Zulte WaregemCharleroi
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
27
AttackIn forecast
43
31
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemCharleroi
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
72%
Scored inContext
79%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.14
ShotsContext
12.59
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
64%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.46
12.38
Shots allowedContext
11.66
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
3.23
BlocksContext
3.36
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
65%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
379
320
Accurate passesContext
305
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.55
FoulsContext
11.28
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.30
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
30%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.56
59%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.38
BlocksContext
3.10
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
57%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
404
PassesContext
404
321
Accurate passesContext
330
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km54 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 54 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 139.9 | 139.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
39M. Aké
8T. Claes
40D. Asare
19Benoit Nyssen
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.36
Charleroi · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–2 AW 4–1 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 2–4 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| St. Truiden | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 3–4 HW 3–2 A |
| Points | 26 of 84 · 0.93 per game | 34 of 84 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025Charleroi1–2Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 59% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.62 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 10.11 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.62 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.76 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 13/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 11/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.88 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 11.78 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.84
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls22.1league 22.7
Penalties0.19league 0.32
Home wins50%league 41%
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L31 Jan 26H · KVC Westerlo0–11
- L31 Aug 25A · Genk2–32
Charleroi6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W26 Dec 25A · Anderlecht2–14
- D29 Nov 25H · RAAL La Louvière0–00
- L28 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen0–20
- W1 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–04
- W25 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem29 games · scored 37 · conceded 47
3
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
11
12
76-90
Charleroi29 games · scored 38 · conceded 41
8
7
0-15
5
7
16-30
8
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
10
61-75
10
5
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
