Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Zulte Waregem
14th · 29 pts · 29 played
LLLLL
First leg2–1
1–0Full time
Charleroi
11th · 34 pts · 29 played
LLLDL
Zulte Waregem41.5%fair odds 2.41
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Charleroi32.7%fair odds 3.06
Expected goals1.55 – 1.35total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Zulte Waregem ↓ · Charleroi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Zulte Waregem goals, columns Charleroi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.25
- 2–18.9%11.21
- 1–07.9%12.66
- 1–27.8%12.86
- 0–16.8%14.68
- 2–06.6%15.16
- 0–06.1%16.40
- 2–26.0%16.58
- 0–25.0%19.93
- 3–14.6%21.69
Winning margin
8.4%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 11.97
12.6%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 7.94
20.5%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 4.87
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
17.8%
Charleroi by 1
fair 5.61
9.6%
Charleroi by 2
fair 10.44
5.2%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 19.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Zulte Waregem goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Charleroi goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem win | 41.5% | 41.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Charleroi win | 32.7% | 32.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 55.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 59.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.55 | 1.56 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.35 | 1.35 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Zulte Waregem win41.5%2.41
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Charleroi win32.7%3.06
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw67.3%1.48
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or Charleroi74.2%1.35
- Double chance Charleroi or draw58.5%1.71
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem56.0%1.79
- Draw no bet Charleroi44.0%2.27
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.1%3.02
- Over 4.516.9%5.93
- Under 1.520.8%4.81
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.9%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.69
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- Zulte Waregem win and yes21.7%4.60
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Charleroi win and yes17.5%5.70
Team goals
- Zulte Waregem over 0.578.8%1.27
- Zulte Waregem over 1.545.9%2.18
- Zulte Waregem over 2.520.4%4.90
- Charleroi over 0.574.1%1.35
- Charleroi over 1.539.2%2.55
- Charleroi over 2.515.5%6.45
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet25.9%3.87
- Charleroi clean sheet21.2%4.71
- Zulte Waregem win to nil19.8%5.06
- Charleroi win to nil15.1%6.61
Handicap
- Zulte Waregem −1.521.0%4.77
- Zulte Waregem −2.58.4%11.97
- Charleroi +1.579.0%1.27
- Charleroi +2.591.6%1.09
- Charleroi −1.514.8%6.75
- Zulte Waregem +1.585.2%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored232
Favourite won44.0%
Avg chance given to result37.5%
1X2 Brier0.630
Over 2.5 called right53.9%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 38.1% | 32.6% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 44.8% | 36.2% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.5% | 56.1% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 232 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–3 RAAL La Louvière46·28·27
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–0 Anderlecht34·27·40
- ✗Antwerp 1–1 Standard Liege41·29·30
- ✓Genk 1–0 St. Truiden50·25·25
- ✓KVC Westerlo 1–2 Club Brugge KV24·25·51
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Dender67·21·12
- ✗Charleroi 0–2 OH Leuven45·25·30
- ✓Gent 2–0 Zulte Waregem50·25·24
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle Brugge54·25·21
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 Standard Liege41·27·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 232 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.