Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
12th · 23 pts · 20 played
DDDLL
First leg2–3
2–1Full time
Genk
9th · 25 pts · 20 played
WLDDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 26). Zulte Waregem had 21.1 days of rest, Genk 22.1 and had to travel 146 km.
Away travel146 kmRest days21.1 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw27%
Genk35%
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
Zulte Waregem30%
Draw26%
Genk44%
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw27%
Genk35%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 36
Team strength
Zulte WaregemGenk
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
27
AttackIn forecast
46
31
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemGenk
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
75%
Scored inContext
85%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
10.80
ShotsContext
16.15
4.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.74
67%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.45
Shots allowedContext
11.45
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
3.47
BlocksContext
3.11
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
396
PassesContext
555
320
Accurate passesContext
484
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.75
FoulsContext
10.20
11.55
Fouls sufferedContext
13.35
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
15.40
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
33%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
71%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.40
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.20
BlocksContext
3.56
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
404
PassesContext
519
320
Accurate passesContext
444
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.50
FoulsContext
10.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel146 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 22.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 146 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
19Benoit Nyssen
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
18A. Ementa
39M. Aké
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
24N. Sattlberger
8B. Heynen
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
29Robin Mirisola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.33
Genk · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Standard Liege | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Dender | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Gent | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game | 22 of 57 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Genk3–2Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.05 | 3.85 | |
| Match total | 10.21 | 9.65 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 4.15 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.20 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.80
Red cards0.36league 0.20
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls25.1league 22.8
Penalties0.33league 0.29
Home wins42%league 40%
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L1 Nov 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–41
Genk5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D14 Sep 25A · Anderlecht1–13
- W15 Aug 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- D28 Jan 24A · St. Truiden1–15
- L4 Nov 23A · Antwerp2–34
- D24 Sep 23H · St. Truiden3–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem20 games · scored 26 · conceded 29
3
6
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Genk20 games · scored 27 · conceded 31
5
9
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
