Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Zulte Waregem had 139.9 days of rest, Genk 139.9 and had to travel 146 km.
Away travel146 kmRest days139.9 · 139.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Zulte Waregem34%
Draw25%
Genk41%
Zulte Waregem35%
Draw26%
Genk39%
Zulte Waregem34%
Draw25%
Genk41%
Zulte Waregem27%
Draw24%
Genk49%
Zulte Waregem34%
Draw25%
Genk41%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 25
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
Genk
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
27
AttackIn forecast
46
31
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemGenk
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.74
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.80
ShotsContext
17.80
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
59%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.50
10.20
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.13
BlocksContext
3.90
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
83%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
417
PassesContext
440
329
Accurate passesContext
370
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.30
FoulsContext
11.80
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest139.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest139.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel146 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 139.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 139.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 146 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
12W. Paugain
11M. Aké
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
21Á. Zalán
20T. Hedl
18A. Ementa
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
24N. Sattlberger
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
10J. Ito
38D. Heymans
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
17R. Durosinmi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
No home games yet this season.
Genk · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2026Zulte Waregem2–1Genk
- 31 Aug 2025Genk3–2Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 58% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Zulte Waregem | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.10 | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 1.80
Red cards0.16league 0.00
Cards 5+40%league 0%
Fouls22.5league 20.0
Penalties0.44league 0.40
Home wins28%league 40%
Zulte Waregem3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D4 Oct 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- L23 Aug 25H · St. Truiden0–23
- D26 Jul 25H · KV Mechelen1–13
Genk2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Feb 24A · Charleroi1–02
- D20 Aug 23H · Charleroi0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte WaregemGenkZulte Waregem10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
