Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
10th · 26 pts · 22 played
DLLWL
First leg1–3
0–1Full time
KVC Westerlo
12th · 25 pts · 22 played
DWLLD
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Zulte Waregem had 7 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 6 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo27%
Zulte Waregem46%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo27%
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo27%
Zulte Waregem40%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo34%
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 38
Team strength
Zulte WaregemKVC Westerlo
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
27
AttackIn forecast
42
31
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemKVC Westerlo
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
77%
Scored inContext
59%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.05
ShotsContext
14.95
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.81
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.18
67%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.36
13.32
Shots allowedContext
12.32
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.05
3.50
BlocksContext
4.05
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
67%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
390
PassesContext
386
316
Accurate passesContext
311
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.68
FoulsContext
11.23
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.68
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.45
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
14.70
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
30%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
69%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.44
BlocksContext
4.11
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
65%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
400
PassesContext
405
321
Accurate passesContext
330
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.40
FoulsContext
10.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel107 km63 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 63 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
12W. Paugain
39M. Aké
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
18A. Ementa
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
33R. Neustädter
77J. Alcócer
46A. Piedfort
13I. Sakamoto
34D. Haspolat
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
38Shunsuke Saito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.30
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 2.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H | D 5–5 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Standard Liege | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Dender | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Gent | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game | 22 of 63 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws1 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Aug 2025KVC Westerlo3–1Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.82 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 36% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 41% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 41% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Zulte Waregem | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.05 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 10.21 | 10.09 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.77 | 3.36 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Zulte Waregem | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 10.40 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.30 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.81
Red cards0.26league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls22.2league 22.9
Penalties0.21league 0.28
Home wins50%league 40%
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L31 Aug 25A · Genk2–32
KVC Westerlo4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 Sep 25A · St. Truiden3–02
- L1 Mar 24H · Charleroi0–11
- D23 Dec 23A · Antwerp2–21
- L25 Nov 23A · Charleroi2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem22 games · scored 31 · conceded 34
3
7
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
5
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
KVC Westerlo22 games · scored 29 · conceded 33
6
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
