Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Zulte Waregem51.3%fair odds 1.95
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.82
SK Beveren22.6%fair odds 4.43
Expected goals1.61 – 0.99total 2.60
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SK Beveren
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Zulte Waregem ↓ · SK Beveren → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Zulte Waregem goals, columns SK Beveren goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.02
- 1–011.4%8.79
- 2–09.7%10.36
- 2–19.5%10.49
- 0–08.1%12.37
- 0–16.7%14.86
- 1–25.8%17.12
- 3–05.2%19.30
- 3–15.1%19.56
- 2–24.7%21.27
Winning margin
11.6%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 8.62
15.9%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 6.29
23.8%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 4.20
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.82
14.3%
SK Beveren by 1
fair 6.97
6.0%
SK Beveren by 2
fair 16.73
2.2%
SK Beveren by 3+
fair 44.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Zulte Waregem goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
SK Beveren goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem win | 51.3% | 51.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.6% | +0.6 pp |
| SK Beveren win | 22.6% | 22.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 50.2% | -2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.8% | 52.4% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.61 | 1.66 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals SK Beveren | 0.99 | 1.02 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Zulte Waregem win51.3%1.95
- Draw26.2%3.82
- SK Beveren win22.6%4.43
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw77.4%1.29
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or SK Beveren73.8%1.35
- Double chance SK Beveren or draw48.7%2.05
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet SK Beveren30.5%3.27
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.8%1.35
- Over 2.548.1%2.08
- Over 3.526.3%3.80
- Over 4.512.2%8.19
- Under 1.526.2%3.82
- Under 2.551.9%1.93
- Under 3.573.7%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes50.8%1.97
- No49.2%2.03
- Yes and over 2.538.3%2.61
- Zulte Waregem win and yes22.1%4.53
- Draw and yes18.1%5.53
- SK Beveren win and yes10.6%9.40
Team goals
- Zulte Waregem over 0.580.0%1.25
- Zulte Waregem over 1.547.8%2.09
- Zulte Waregem over 2.521.9%4.56
- SK Beveren over 0.562.7%1.59
- SK Beveren over 1.525.9%3.86
- SK Beveren over 2.57.8%12.84
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet37.3%2.68
- SK Beveren clean sheet20.0%5.00
- Zulte Waregem win to nil29.2%3.43
- SK Beveren win to nil11.9%8.39
Handicap
- Zulte Waregem −1.527.5%3.64
- Zulte Waregem −2.511.6%8.62
- SK Beveren +1.572.5%1.38
- SK Beveren +2.588.4%1.13
- SK Beveren −1.58.2%12.17
- Zulte Waregem +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won57.9%
Avg chance given to result44.7%
1X2 Brier0.519
Over 2.5 called right63.2%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 44.9% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.8% | 80.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 63.4% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.