Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Mar 8 · 17:30 Elindus Arena, Waregem
Zulte Waregem 12th · 29 pts · 27 played
First leg0–0 0–1Full time
Standard Liege 9th · 35 pts · 27 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Zulte Waregem. Zulte Waregem had 8.1 days of rest, Standard Liege 8.9 and had to travel 153 km.

Away travel153 kmRest days8.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw27%
Standard Liege32%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.22
Zulte Waregem39%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw27%
Standard Liege32%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.22
Zulte Waregem34%
Draw28%
Standard Liege39%
Expected goals 1.25 – 1.37
Zulte Waregem40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.27
Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)

No weather data yet

RefereeNicolas Laforge
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.32
  • Matches 37

Team strength

Zulte WaregemStandard Liege
23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
27 AttackIn forecast 29
31 DefenceIn forecast 29
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Zulte WaregemStandard Liege
1.37 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93
1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26
1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.93
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
78% Scored inContext 59%
19% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.15 ShotsContext 9.44
4.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.15
35% On target shareContext 32%
8.08 Shots in the boxContext 6.46
65% Box shareContext 66%
11% ConversionContext 10%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.63
12.59 Shots allowedContext 14.15
4.48 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.74
3.42 BlocksContext 3.93
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.65
65% Save rateContext 75%
48% PossessionIn forecast 44%
395 PassesContext 353
319 Accurate passesContext 271
81% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.80
10.48 FoulsContext 10.67
11.41 Fouls sufferedContext 11.81
1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.93
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.15
This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.45 xGVia Att/Def 0.86
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38
-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.50 ShotsContext 8.60
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67
31% On target shareContext 28%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.90
61% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 11%
2.13 OffsidesContext 3.00
9.40 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
2.50 BlocksContext 3.40
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10
54% Save rateContext 76%
51% PossessionIn forecast 42%
430 PassesContext 328
346 Accurate passesContext 242
81% Pass accuracyContext 74%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.75
9.00 FoulsContext 9.90
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Zulte Waregem
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Standard Liege
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel153 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Zulte Waregem Standard Liege
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways150 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one5.16.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Zulte Waregem Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen 5Jakob Kiilerich 45Benoit De Jaegere
17E. Soglo 8T. Claes 40D. Asare 19Benoit Nyssen
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
18A. Ementa 22J. Opoku
Standard Liege Confirmed XI
3-4-3
21L. Pirard(G)
24J. Homawoo 4D. Bates 25I. Hautekiet
3Gustav Mortensen 23M. Ilaimaharitra 20I. Karamoko 18H. Lawrence
17R. Saïd 10D. Eckert Ayensa 7T. Mohr

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Zulte Waregem Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Standard Liege+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Zulte Waregem · Home 1.38points per game · 13 home games
W-D-L
5-3-5
Scored
1.38
Conceded
1.38
Standard Liege · Away 1.38points per game · 13 away games
W-D-L
6-0-7
Scored
0.85
Conceded
1.23

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentZulte WaregemStandard Liege
KV Mechelen L 1–2 AD 1–1 H W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Anderlecht L 2–4 HW 3–2 A W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
St. Truiden L 2–3 AL 0–2 H L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Dender W 1–0 HD 2–2 A W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
KVC Westerlo L 0–1 HL 1–3 A W 2–0 A
Club Brugge KV L 3–4 AL 0–1 H L 0–3 AL 1–2 H
Genk W 2–1 HL 2–3 A W 3–0 AW 2–1 H
Antwerp L 1–2 AW 2–0 H W 1–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–2 AL 1–4 H D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
RAAL La Louvière D 2–2 HD 0–0 A D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
OH Leuven D 1–1 AW 2–0 H L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 HD 1–1 A W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Gent W 4–1 H L 0–4 HL 0–4 A
Charleroi W 2–1 A L 0–2 AW 3–1 H
Points28 of 78 · 1.08 per game34 of 78 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Zulte Waregem wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%
  • 21 Nov 2025Standard Liege0–0Zulte Waregem

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Zulte WaregemStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.370.93
Conceded per game 1.631.26
Match goals 3.002.19 2.63
Over 1.5 81%70%
Over 2.5 52%41% 49%
Over 3.5 37%11%
Both teams scored 67%33% 54%
Clean sheets 19%30%
Failed to score 22%41%
Games2727
Zulte WaregemStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.400.90
Conceded per game 2.101.40
Match goals 3.502.30 2.63
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 70%40% 49%
Over 3.5 40%10%
Both teams scored 70%30% 54%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Zulte WaregemStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won4.634.27
Corners conceded5.425.35
Match total10.059.629.91
Over 8.563% 15/2450% 13/26
Over 9.546% 11/2438% 10/26
Over 10.542% 10/2431% 8/26
Cards
Cards1.702.15
Opponent cards2.111.89
Match total3.814.044.08
Over 3.548% 13/2763% 17/27
Over 4.541% 11/2744% 12/27
Zulte WaregemStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.11
Corners conceded3.135.11
Match total8.6310.229.91
Over 8.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 9.525% 2/844% 4/9
Over 10.513% 1/844% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.701.70
Opponent cards2.202.10
Match total3.903.804.08
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nicolas Laforge 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 3.86
Red cards0.14league 0.19
Cards 5+49%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.7
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins46%league 41%
Zulte Waregem

No previous matches with this referee.

Standard Liege6 with this referee
Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1
  • W20 Dec 25A · Dender1–01
  • L9 Nov 25A · St. Truiden0–11
  • D12 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen1–13
  • L25 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–23
  • L29 Oct 23A · Gent1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Zulte Waregem27 games · scored 37 · conceded 44
3 8 0-15
8 3 16-30
7 10 31-45
4 7 46-60
4 5 61-75
11 11 76-90
Standard Liege27 games · scored 25 · conceded 34
6 5 0-15
4 4 16-30
7 9 31-45
6 2 46-60
2 6 61-75
8 76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 8 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
6 5 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 5 31-45
1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
RAAL La Louvière Antwerp 00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo 01 Dender Charleroi 22 Union St. Gilloise Genk 21 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht 22 Gent KV Mechelen 31 Zulte Waregem Standard Liege 01 St. Truiden Cercle Brugge 21