Le Mans

16th · Ligue 1 · 6 points · Matches played: 7

8 points behind Lyon · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-2.7 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -1.0 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 25.7-2.7
World Rank 283rd Global, by Elo
Ligue 1 Rank 15th L90 Strength
Last ToulouseH xG 0.9–1.8 0–3 Next AuxerreA 25%

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Our take

Up against it.

Le Mans are short of quality at both ends, with one of the weaker attack in the league and one of the weaker defence in the league. Across the 7 league matches with forecasts, their points total is close to our pre-match expectations. A. Bourabaa is out, and The toughest of the next 3 matches is the visit of Monaco.

They are comfortable without the ball, with only 45% possession, and look to hurt teams on the break. They are clinical in front of goal (14% of shots scored), and give up a lot of shots (17 a game). Their results hold up much the same at home and away.

  • Relegation 13%Likely 15th · 35 projected points
  • Next 3: about 3 of 9 points Toughest vs Monaco · , 24% to win
  • 1 key player outA. Bourabaa · 10% of squad weight missing · Last match: 16 Oct
  • 6 pts vs 7.4 expected-1.4 vs pre-match expectations · 7 matches with forecasts

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Le Mans. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals for this club in each category.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses observed Playing style averages; window size is not xG coverage and the two metrics can have different denominators. Points minus xPts uses the same covered current-league matches and stored forecasts as Club strength, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

The full picture, with the evidence behind every signal.View all Club insights →

Season

League position and season results.

Overview

2026-2027
All competitions7 Played
Ligue 16 pts0.86 PPG7 games 16th
14.3%Win %
Wins1
Draws3
Losses3

Expected metrics · 4 of 7 matches covered

Goals For
101.43 / game
xG 5.99 0.99 fewer goals than expected. vs 5 goals
Goals Against
152.14 / game
xGA 11.54 0.54 fewer conceded than expected. vs 11 conceded
Goal Difference
-5-0.71 / game
xGD -5.55 Goal difference is 0.45 lower than expected. vs -6 GD
Clean Sheets
00% of games

Season totals cover all competitions and stages. Positions and points refer to each competition table.

Competition standings

There is no combined table across competitions. View each competition separately.

Ligue 1 →

Squad 30 players · this season, all competitions · 4 out

Absences reported for the last match: 16 Oct 2026

Top scorer
L. Mafouta4 goals (1 pen)
Most assists
A. Bourabaa2 assists
Injured
Best rated
A. Bourabaa7.25 avg rating
Injured
Most minutes
L. Mafouta585 min
Key to the model
H. VoyerStarter · weight 1.95
PlayerAgeAppsMinGARatingModel role
Goalkeepers
N. Kocik 28 5 (5) 441 0 0 6.71 starter
E. Hatfout 26 3 (2) 189 0 0 6.63 rotation
Augustin Delbecque — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Defenders
H. Voyer 29 6 (6) 527 0 0 6.53 starter
R. Bamba 22 6 (5) 471 0 1 6.30 starter
N. Boissé 20 6 (5) 418 0 0 6.10 starter
L. Calodat 24 7 (4) 383 1 2 7.01 starter
S. Yohou — 5 (4) 376 0 0 6.40 starter
A. Lauray 29 6 (4) 358 0 0 6.31 rotation
L. Buadés 28 3 (3) 249 0 0 6.39 rotation
D. Sidibé 34 4 (2) 247 0 0 6.57 rotation
Y. Larouci 25 5 (3) 225 0 0 6.18 rotation
T. Eyoum — 2 (2) 180 0 0 6.30 rotation
Raúl Torrente 25 2 (1) 74 0 0 6.38 rotation
Midfielders
Lucas Bretelle 24 5 (5) 407 0 1 6.61 starter
A. Bourabaa injured — 5 (5) 398 3 2 7.25 core
J. Vercruysse 26 6 (5) 384 0 1 6.61 starter
D. Traoré 20 2 (1) 86 0 0 6.24 rotation
L. Bretelle — 1 (0) 27 0 0 — —
M. Robin 26 1 (0) 9 0 0 6.50 depth
E. Quarshie injured — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
M. Rossignol injured — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Lenny Videira — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Forwards
L. Mafouta 32 7 (7) 585 4 1 6.89 starter
D. Guèye 31 7 (5) 403 1 0 6.38 starter
M. Diallo 31 5 (2) 187 1 0 6.77 rotation
A. Rabillard 31 5 (1) 177 0 0 6.83 rotation
B. Brahimi 26 5 (0) 96 0 0 6.54 rotation
W. Harhouz 26 2 (0) 36 0 0 6.59 depth
E. Colas injured 29 1 (0) 27 0 0 6.60 —

Stats are this season in all competitions. Model role is how much the availability model weighs each player before the trip to Auxerre: core, starter, rotation or depth, from several seasons of minutes and ratings.

Performance

Strength, recent form and playing style.

Strength Ligue 1 · 18 clubs

L90 Strength15th of 18
26 Elo 1487 · World #283
Current Strength
26 With absences before 25 Oct: +0 Elo
Attack14th of 18
27 Scores 1.22 per match against an average top-five side
Defence16th of 18
21 Concedes 2.11 per match against an average top-five side

In forecast League average

L90 Strength comes from Elo; Attack and Defence from goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG) and shots on target, all on fixed 0–100 scales shared by every league. These are the numbers the forecast uses.

Strong at both ends Defence first Attack first Struggling Attack → Defence → Lyon: attack 55, defence 56, L90 Strength 60 Paris Saint Germain: attack 91, defence 83, L90 Strength 90 Paris FC: attack 46, defence 38, L90 Strength 34 Lille: attack 42, defence 60, L90 Strength 56 Monaco: attack 45, defence 56, L90 Strength 56 Rennes: attack 63, defence 39, L90 Strength 52 Lorient: attack 28, defence 45, L90 Strength 34 Lens: attack 63, defence 53, L90 Strength 58 Marseille: attack 48, defence 46, L90 Strength 47 Stade Brestois 29: attack 47, defence 36, L90 Strength 34 Toulouse: attack 45, defence 49, L90 Strength 39 Auxerre: attack 39, defence 25, L90 Strength 30 Nice: attack 26, defence 35, L90 Strength 27 Strasbourg: attack 40, defence 37, L90 Strength 45 Angers: attack 22, defence 12, L90 Strength 19 Le Mans: attack 27, defence 21, L90 Strength 26 Estac Troyes: attack 12, defence 19, L90 Strength 12 LE Havre: attack 20, defence 22, L90 Strength 20
Every Ligue 1 club on the Attack and Defence scales. Dashed lines are the league average. Tap a crest to open that club.

Form last 5 for the index · last 7 listed

31
Form index · 14th of 18 in league
Points, last 5
5
Median top-5 club
7.2
Own forecasts
5.2 -0.2
Table16th L90 Strength15th Form14th

Table position in line with their strength.

Form compares points with what a median top-five club (L90 Strength 50) would take from the same fixtures, so wins over strong sides count for more; 50 is a typical run. "Own forecasts" is the gap to this club's pre-match expectations. Form is context: in our tests it did not improve the forecast.

  • L16 OctH · Toulouse0–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Paris Saint Germain1–30.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Lorient2–11.5 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Lens2–20.9 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Nice1–11.2 xPts
  • L30 AugA · Rennes2–30.7 xPts
  • D22 AugH · Stade Brestois 292–21.6 xPts

Trends last 7, all competitions

Scored 6/7
Clean sheet 0/7
Conceded 2+ 5/7
Over 2.5 6/7
Both teams scored 6/7

Playing style vs Ligue 1 average

Le MansLeagueRank
Goals scored 1.43 1.52 11th
Goals conceded 2.14 1.52 14th
xG 1.50 1.66 10th
xG allowed 2.89 1.66 18th
Scored in 86% 79% 4th
Clean sheets 0% 21% 15th
Le MansLeagueRank
Shots 10.14 13.60 17th
Shots on target 3.86 4.85 14th
On target share 38% 36% 7th
Box share 60% 64% 16th
Conversion 14% 11% 3rd
Le MansLeagueRank
Shots allowed 16.57 13.60 17th
On target allowed 5.43 4.83 14th
Blocks 3.43 3.55 11th
Save rate 58% 71% 17th
Le MansLeagueRank
Possession 45% 50% 17th
Passes 406 479 16th
Pass accuracy 80% 85% 17th
Le MansLeagueRank
Fouls 14.86 11.99 16th
Fouls suffered 10.00 11.99 16th
Yellow cards 2.43 1.66 17th
Red cards 0.14 0.06 12th
This league season, per match · 7 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.
Le MansLeagueRank
Goals scored 1.43 1.56 12th
Goals conceded 2.14 1.51 18th
xG 1.50 1.52 8th
xG allowed 2.89 1.54 18th
Scored in 86% 79% 5th
Clean sheets 0% 19% 16th
Le MansLeagueRank
Shots 10.14 13.51 17th
Shots on target 3.86 4.85 14th
On target share 38% 35% 5th
Box share 60% 64% 16th
Conversion 14% 12% 4th
Le MansLeagueRank
Shots allowed 16.57 13.69 16th
On target allowed 5.43 4.78 14th
Blocks 3.43 3.75 12th
Save rate 58% 70% 18th
Le MansLeagueRank
Possession 45% 50% 17th
Passes 406 464 14th
Pass accuracy 80% 85% 17th
Le MansLeagueRank
Fouls 14.86 11.61 18th
Fouls suffered 10.00 11.61 15th
Yellow cards 2.43 1.65 18th
Red cards 0.14 0.06 17th
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 7 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.

Home and away this league season

Home1.25pts per game1-2-1 · 1.5–2.0 goals · 4 games
Away0.33pts per game0-1-2 · 1.3–2.3 goals · 3 games

Goal timing this league season · 7 games

2 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, per 15 minutes

In forecastVia Att/DefContextLeague average

Possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Goals, xG and shots on target feed the Attack and Defence ratings. The rest describes how the team plays and does not change the forecast.

Team rankings Ligue 1 · 7 games · rank of 18

Attack

GF 10 11th / 18
GF/G 1.43 11th / 18
xG/G 1.50 10th / 18
G − xG -0.07 6th / 18

Defence

GA 15 14th / 18
GA/G 2.14 14th / 18
xGA/G 2.89 18th / 18
xGA − GA +0.75 2nd / 18

Overall

Pts 6 16th / 18
xPts 7.4 17th / 18
PPG 0.86 16th / 18
TR 6.60 17th / 18
GD -5 14th / 18
xGD -9.7 18th / 18
W 1 16th / 18
L 3 10th / 18

Scorelines

  • 2–2×2
  • 2–3×1
  • 1–1×1
  • 2–1×1
  • 1–3×1
  • 0–3×1

Goals per game both teams

0% 0
0% 1
14% 2
29% 3
43% 4
14% 5+

Totals club · league

Over 1.5
100%79%
Over 2.5
86%63%
Over 3.5
57%38%
Both scored
86%63%
Clean sheet
0%21%
Failed to score
14%21%
ClubLeague average

This league season only. xPts adds up our pre-match win and draw chances (pure EloLambda, the same numbers as Form). xG and TR come from match data and describe the season so far; none of these rankings change the forecast directly.