Auxerre
Attack+22%
Defense risk−16%
Our take
Auxerre are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Auxerre. Auxerre have 7 days of rest, Le Mans 8.9 and have to travel 252 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel252 kmRest days7 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Auxerre53%
Draw22%
Le Mans25%
Auxerre46%
Draw26%
Le Mans27%
Auxerre53%
Draw22%
Le Mans25%
Auxerre45%
Draw24%
Le Mans32%
Auxerre54%
Draw22%
Le Mans25%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 32 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
16°COvercast
- Precipitation 72%
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 56%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Auxerre and Le Mans. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Auxerre
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Le Mans
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Auxerre
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
Le Mans
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
Auxerre
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Le Mans
−1.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 7-match window
xG for1.50xG against2.89
-
Alert
Le Mans
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Auxerre
−0.63
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.10
Team strength
AuxerreLe Mans
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
39
AttackIn forecast
27
25
DefenceIn forecast
21
61
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLe Mans
Attack+15%
Defense risk−5%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
AuxerreLe Mans
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
2.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
100%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.86
ShotsContext
10.14
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
43%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
49%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.71
Shots allowedContext
16.57
6.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
4.00
BlocksContext
3.43
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
68%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
384
PassesContext
406
311
Accurate passesContext
325
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.60
14.86
FoulsContext
14.86
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
100%
Scored inContext
86%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.10
ShotsContext
10.14
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
45%
On target shareContext
38%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
55%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.20
Shots allowedContext
16.57
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
3.33
BlocksContext
3.43
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
67%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
385
PassesContext
406
312
Accurate passesContext
325
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.60
14.60
FoulsContext
14.86
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
LWWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km633 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Le Mans
DDWLL
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel252 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Le Mans |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct | 8.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 252 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 633 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Last XI · not confirmed
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa
4A. Tuanzebe
15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
8N. Ahamada
27L. Sy
10D. Namaso
21R. Faivre
9C. Archer
Le Mans
Last XI · not confirmed
98N. Kocik(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
19D. Sidibé
29Lucas Bretelle
76Y. Larouci
10J. Vercruysse
23D. Traoré
18L. Buadés
14L. Mafouta
25D. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
No reported absences
Le Mans
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Le Mans+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Le Mans · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 1–4 A | L 2–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lens | L 2–5 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.43 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.57 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 86% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Auxerre | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.57 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 86% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 86% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.57 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 13.14 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 7/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 7/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Auxerre | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 8.57 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.43 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Auxerre7 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Le Mans7 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
