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Bundesliga · 13 signals · 13 clubs in this view
Bayer LeverkusenWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score73/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 5
- Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.5
- Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 2.8
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +1.10
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 73.3
- Recency
- 64.1
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 58.3
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Hamburger SVPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score60/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.52
- Wins in a rowLast 6 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 43.6
- Recency
- 62.0
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 46.7
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.11; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
SV ElversbergPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score53/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.7
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.17
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 50.5
- Recency
- 46.5
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 10; xPts 6.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.46; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
Results vs forecasts13 signals · 13 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Points below expected
−7.0
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast73
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 0; xPts 7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 95.5
- Recency
- 96.2
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 0.0
- xPts
- 7.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
1899 Hoffenheim
Points below expected
−6.2
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast68
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 6; xPts 12.2. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 71.5
- Recency
- 96.2
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 12.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
SV Elversberg
Points above expected
+3.7
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 10; xPts 6.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 50.5
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 6.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Bayer Leverkusen
Points above expected
+3.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 40.4
- Recency
- 96.2
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 19.0
- xPts
- 15.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
SC Freiburg
Points above expected
+3.3
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 13; xPts 9.7. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 45.0
- Recency
- 96.2
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 9.7
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Hamburger SV
Points above expected
+3.2
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 43.6
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 5.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Bayern München
Points below expected
−2.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 18; xPts 20.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 28.8
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 20.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Werder Bremen
Points above expected
+2.7
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast52
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 6.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 36.8
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 6.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Borussia Dortmund
Points above expected
+1.5
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast48
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 17; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 17.3
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 17.0
- xPts
- 15.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
FC Schalke 04
Points below expected
−1.6
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast47
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 6.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 21.8
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 6.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
VfB Stuttgart
Points below expected
−1.3
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast48
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 12; xPts 13.3. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 15.0
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 55.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/8 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 13.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Union Berlin
Points below expected
−1.2
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast45
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 6.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 16.4
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 6.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
SC Paderborn 07
Points below expected
−1.2
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast45
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 6.2. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 16.4
- Recency
- 93.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 6.2
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
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