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Bundesliga · 4 signals · 1 clubs in this view
Hamburger SVPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score60/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.2
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.52
- Wins in a rowLast 6 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 43.6
- Recency
- 62.4
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 46.7
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.11; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
All signals4 signals · 1 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Hamburger SV
Goals conceded per match
2.5
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores49
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 6 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 17.1
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Hamburger SV’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Borussia DortmundA | 0–2L |
| 2026-09-06 | FSV Mainz 05H | 0–5L |
| 2026-09-13 | RB LeipzigA | 0–5L |
| 2026-09-19 | 1.FC KölnH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-10 | 1899 HoffenheimA | 3–2W |
| 2026-10-17 | VfB StuttgartH | 1–0W |
Hamburger SV
Wins in a row
3
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak52
Consecutive wins start with the latest recorded result. A draw or defeat ends the run within the available window.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 6 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 24.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Hamburger SV’s perspective. Event: Wins in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Borussia DortmundA | 0–2L | No |
| 2026-09-06 | FSV Mainz 05H | 0–5L | No |
| 2026-09-13 | RB LeipzigA | 0–5L | No |
| 2026-09-19 | 1.FC KölnH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | 1899 HoffenheimA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | VfB StuttgartH | 1–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Hamburger SV
Points above expected
+3.2
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 43.6
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
6/6 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 5.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 4.
Full club analysis →
Hamburger SV
xG difference per match
−0.52
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG28
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.11; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 34.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.11
- xG against
- 1.63
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
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