1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
16th · 8 pts · 12 played
LDLLW
2–1Full time
SC Freiburg
8th · 16 pts · 12 played
LDWLW
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, SC Freiburg 5.8 and had to travel 186 km.
Away travel186 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
1. FC Heidenheim24%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg51%
1. FC Heidenheim25%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg49%
1. FC Heidenheim25%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg51%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Draw23%
SC Freiburg58%
1. FC Heidenheim25%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg49%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 19
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimSC Freiburg
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
48
AttackIn forecast
63
39
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimSC Freiburg
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
58%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.83
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
34%
6.82
Shots in the boxContext
8.36
64%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.33
Shots allowedContext
11.33
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.75
BlocksContext
3.73
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
60%
Save rateContext
57%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
352
PassesContext
426
274
Accurate passesContext
352
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.08
FoulsContext
8.92
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.40
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
66%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.20
BlocksContext
3.78
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
60%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
359
PassesContext
426
280
Accurate passesContext
355
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.90
FoulsContext
9.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km971 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel186 km1,431 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 186 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 971 km | 1,431 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
27T. Keller
16J. Niehues
19J. Föhrenbach
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
2M. Busch
17M. Honsak
18M. Pieringer
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
29P. Treu
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
44J. Manzambi
19J. Beste
9L. Höler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
SC Freiburg · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws2 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2025SC Freiburg1–01. FC Heidenheim
- 21 Sep 20241. FC Heidenheim0–3SC Freiburg
- 11 May 2024SC Freiburg1–11. FC Heidenheim
- 20 Dec 20231. FC Heidenheim3–2SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 8.70 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 4.50 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.22 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 3.94
Red cards0.26league 0.21
Cards 5+53%league 41%
Fouls22.7league 21.6
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins37%league 44%
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25A · Hamburger SV1–21
- L1 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–40
- W28 Sep 24A · FSV Mainz 052–05
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim12 games · scored 10 · conceded 27
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
SC Freiburg12 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
