1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
9th · 14 pts · 10 played
WDLWL
3–4Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 17 pts · 10 played
LDWDW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). 1.FC Köln had 14 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 13 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln28%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt46%
1.FC Köln28%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
1.FC Köln28%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt47%
1.FC Köln22%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
1.FC Köln28%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 60
Team strength
1.FC KölnEintracht Frankfurt
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
54
36
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnEintracht Frankfurt
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.85
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
13.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
61%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.80
BlocksContext
1.90
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
69%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
394
PassesContext
508
323
Accurate passesContext
426
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.40
FoulsContext
9.30
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
61%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.80
BlocksContext
2.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
394
PassesContext
507
323
Accurate passesContext
426
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.40
FoulsContext
8.40
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel153 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
3D. Heintz
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
8D. Huseinbašić
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
16J. Kamiński
9R. Ache
29J. Thielmann
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
18M. Dahoud
7A. Knauff
8F. Chaïbi
27M. Götze
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 6–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 1.FC Köln wins3 draws0 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.517%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 Feb 20241.FC Köln2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 3 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
- 12 Feb 20231.FC Köln3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21 Aug 2022Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
- 19 Feb 20221.FC Köln1–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Sep 2021Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| 1.FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 7.33 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 7.10 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.03
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 22.0
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins50%league 45%
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L15 Mar 24H · RB Leipzig1–52
- D3 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- L6 Nov 22A · SC Freiburg0–21
- L1 Apr 22A · Union Berlin0–13
- L11 Feb 22A · RB Leipzig1–32
Eintracht Frankfurt9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D20 Apr 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
- L21 Dec 24H · FSV Mainz 051–31
- W23 Nov 24H · Werder Bremen1–02
- W31 Aug 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–10
- W20 Dec 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 17 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
