1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. 1.FC Köln had 14.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 14 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
1.FC Köln44%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg30%
1.FC Köln44%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg30%
1.FC Köln44%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg30%
1.FC Köln36%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg37%
1.FC Köln44%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg30%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 22
Team strength
1.FC Köln
FC Augsburg
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
36
AttackIn forecast
72
36
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnFC Augsburg
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.97
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.17
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
64%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
67%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
377
PassesContext
376
307
Accurate passesContext
302
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.50
FoulsContext
14.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.40
ShotsContext
12.80
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
64%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
62%
Save rateContext
57%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
401
PassesContext
416
319
Accurate passesContext
343
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.50
FoulsContext
11.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel402 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3D. Heintz
4T. Hübers
2Joel Schmied
32K. Lund
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
7G. Waldschmidt
29J. Thielmann
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
40N. Banks
5C. Matsima
17K. Jakić
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
30A. Kade
26E. Saad
32F. Rieder
36M. Kömür
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
FC Augsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 3–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 1.FC Köln wins2 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 31 Mar 2024FC Augsburg1–11.FC Köln
- 4 Nov 20231.FC Köln1–1FC Augsburg
- 8 Apr 2023FC Augsburg1–31.FC Köln
- 16 Oct 20221.FC Köln3–2FC Augsburg
- 30 Apr 2022FC Augsburg1–41.FC Köln
- 10 Dec 20211.FC Köln0–2FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| 1.FC Köln | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.83 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.66 | 9.67 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 5.67 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| 1.FC Köln | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 12.70 | 10.13 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 4.25
Red cards0.32league 0.25
Cards 5+45%league 44%
Fouls20.9league 22.8
Penalties0.41league 0.42
Home wins41%league 42%
1.FC Köln1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Feb 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–01
FC Augsburg2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L11 May 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–42
- W16 Mar 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
7
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
