1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
1.FC Köln were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 23). 1.FC Köln had 7 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 7 and had to travel 357 km.
Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln56%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli20%
1.FC Köln55%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
1.FC Köln56%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli20%
1.FC Köln49%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli26%
1.FC Köln55%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 48
Team strength
1.FC Köln
FC St. Pauli
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
36
AttackIn forecast
20
36
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnFC St. Pauli
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
92%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.33
ShotsContext
11.25
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
65%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.60
14.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
4.58
BlocksContext
3.33
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
66%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
409
PassesContext
469
337
Accurate passesContext
378
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.25
FoulsContext
10.92
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
90%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.80
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
28%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
64%
Box shareContext
51%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.10
BlocksContext
3.63
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
66%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
417
PassesContext
469
345
Accurate passesContext
376
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.61
9.00
FoulsContext
9.90
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel357 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 540 km | 1,224 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
33R. van den Berg
6E. Martel
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
8D. Huseinbašić
29J. Thielmann
30M. Bülter
13S. El Mala
7G. Waldschmidt
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
23Louis Oppie
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
16J. Fujita
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 27 · 1.22 per game | 7 of 27 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.42 | 2.83 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 42% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 50% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| 1.FC Köln | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.64 | 3.82 | |
| Match total | 10.91 | 9.27 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 3.84 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| 1.FC Köln | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.78 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 9.89 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.94
Red cards0.10league 0.21
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls25.1league 21.6
Penalties0.27league 0.33
Home wins42%league 44%
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Aug 25H · SC Freiburg4–12
- L29 Apr 23H · SC Freiburg0–11
- L15 Oct 21A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–51
FC St. Pauli3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Apr 25A · Werder Bremen0–02
- D1 Feb 25H · FC Augsburg1–11
- D26 Oct 24H · VfL Wolfsburg0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln12 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
11
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli12 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
9
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 5 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
