1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1.FC Köln56.4%fair odds 1.77
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.28
FC St. Pauli20.3%fair odds 4.93
Expected goals1.90 – 1.06total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1.FC Köln ↓ · FC St. Pauli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.08
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 2–09.4%10.67
- 1–09.3%10.71
- 3–16.3%15.96
- 3–05.9%16.88
- 0–05.8%17.33
- 1–25.5%18.08
- 2–25.2%19.08
- 0–15.0%20.15
Winning margin
15.8%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 6.34
17.4%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 5.73
23.2%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 4.32
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.28
12.7%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 7.88
5.4%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 18.43
2.2%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 46.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
1.FC Köln goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
FC St. Pauli goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln win | 56.4% | 55.3% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.3% | -1.0 pp |
| FC St. Pauli win | 20.3% | 20.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 52.9% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 53.3% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.90 | 1.79 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.06 | 1.00 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1.FC Köln win56.4%1.77
- Draw23.4%4.28
- FC St. Pauli win20.3%4.93
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw79.7%1.25
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or FC St. Pauli76.6%1.30
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw43.6%2.29
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln73.6%1.36
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli26.4%3.78
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.9%1.25
- Over 2.556.6%1.77
- Over 3.534.2%2.92
- Over 4.517.7%5.65
- Under 1.520.1%4.98
- Under 2.543.4%2.31
- Under 3.565.8%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.79
- No44.0%2.27
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- 1.FC Köln win and yes27.4%3.65
- Draw and yes17.6%5.69
- FC St. Pauli win and yes11.0%9.08
Team goals
- 1.FC Köln over 0.585.0%1.18
- 1.FC Köln over 1.556.5%1.77
- 1.FC Köln over 2.529.5%3.39
- FC St. Pauli over 0.565.3%1.53
- FC St. Pauli over 1.528.5%3.50
- FC St. Pauli over 2.59.1%10.97
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet34.7%2.88
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet15.0%6.66
- 1.FC Köln win to nil29.0%3.45
- FC St. Pauli win to nil9.2%10.81
Handicap
- 1.FC Köln −1.533.2%3.01
- 1.FC Köln −2.515.8%6.34
- FC St. Pauli +1.566.8%1.50
- FC St. Pauli +2.584.2%1.19
- FC St. Pauli −1.57.6%13.19
- 1.FC Köln +1.592.4%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won56.9%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.548
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right56.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 45.2% | 41.2% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 65.2% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5292 | 0.5356 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach46·26·28
- ✓SC Freiburg 4–0 FSV Mainz 0552·24·24
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg61·22·17
- ✗Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart23·24·53
- ✗Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund47·25·28
- ✗Union Berlin 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim56·24·20
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 FC Augsburg54·24·23
- ✗Werder Bremen 1–1 1.FC Köln54·24·22
- ✓Bayern München 3–1 FC St. Pauli93·5·2
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 RB Leipzig29·26·45
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.