Bundesliga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 29 2025 · 14:30 Allianz Arena, München
Bayern München
3–1 Full time · HT 1–1 xG 2.09 – 0.60
FC St. Pauli
  • R. Guerreiro 44’
  • L. Díaz 90+3’
  • N. Jackson 90+7’
  • 6’ A. Hountondji
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Bayern München come from behind to beat FC St. Pauli

Bayern München entered as clear favourites, yet FC St. Pauli led 1–0 after 6 minutes through a Hountondji goal. But Guerreiro, Díaz and Jackson scored to turn it around for Bayern München, who won 3–1. Bayern München finished with the higher xG (2.09 vs 0.60).

Bayern München ✓93%
Draw5%
FC St. Pauli2%

Model vs reality

Bayern München goals
3
Model 4.03 · xG 2.09
FC St. Pauli goals
1
Model 0.56 · xG 0.60
Total goals
4
Model 4.60 · xG 2.69
Score 3–1
6%
Most likely 4–0 (11%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 84%
Both scored
Yes
Model 42%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchL. DíazBayern München · 1 goal · 1 assist
8.6
  • RefereeFelix Zwayer
  • Coaches— · A. Blessin
  • VenueAllianz Arena
  • Table before kick-offBayern München 1st · FC St. Pauli 16th

Timeline

  1. A. Hountondji 0–1Assist M. Pereira Lage
    6’
  2. ⇄ D. SinaniFor A. Hountondji
    18’
  3. K. MetsYellow card · Tripping
    39’
  4. R. Guerreiro 1–1Assist L. Díaz
    44’
  5. Half time · 1–1
  6. ⇄ M. OliseFor K. Laimer
    46’
  7. ⇄ S. GnabryFor Lennart Karl
    65’
  8. ⇄ J. StanišićFor R. Guerreiro
    65’
  9. ⇄ A. CeesayFor J. Irvine
    68’
  10. ⇄ Louis OppieFor L. Ritzka
    68’
  11. ⇄ L. GoretzkaFor M. Kim
    77’
  12. J. TahYellow card · Roughing
    83’
  13. ⇄ N. JacksonFor A. Pavlović
    83’
  14. ⇄ C. MetcalfeFor M. Pereira Lage
    87’
  15. L. Díaz 2–1Assist J. Kimmich
    90+3’
  16. N. Jackson 3–1
    90+7’
  17. Full time · 3–1

Team stats

Bayern München19 shots · 14 in box, 5 outside
FC St. Pauli10 shots · 5 in box, 5 outside
Bayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
81% Possession 19%
2.09 Expected goals (xG) 0.60
2.35 Expected points (xPts) 0.47
19 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 1
11 Shots off target 5
5 Blocked shots 4
14 Shots inside the box 5
5 Shots outside the box 5
991 Passes 235
93% Pass accuracy 72%
10 Corners 2
5 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 2
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
7.19 Team rating 6.43

Line-ups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1

16.3 M. Neuer(G)
206.3 T. Bischof 48.0 J. Tah 37.9 M. Kim ↓77’ 275.9 K. Laimer ↓46’
457.9 A. Pavlović ↓83’ 68.3 J. Kimmich A
148.6★ L. Díaz A 227.2 R. Guerreiro ↓65’ 426.2 Lennart Karl ↓65’
96.3 H. Kane
  • 1M. Neuer (G)6.3
  • 20T. Bischof6.3
  • 4J. Tah8.0
  • 3M. Kim↓77’7.9
  • 27K. Laimer↓46’5.9
  • 45A. Pavlović↓83’7.9
  • 6J. KimmichA8.3
  • 14L. Díaz ★A8.6
  • 22R. Guerreiro↓65’7.2
  • 42Lennart Karl↓65’6.2
  • 9H. Kane6.3

Substitutes used

  • 17M. Olise↑46’7.2
  • 44J. Stanišić↑65’6.6
  • 7S. Gnabry↑65’6.3
  • 8L. Goretzka↑77’6.3
  • 11N. Jackson↑83’6.3

Unused: J. Urbig, Cassiano Kiala, H. Ito, S. Boey

FC St. Pauli 5-4-1

226.0 N. Vasilj(G)
216.5 L. Ritzka ↓68’ 36.0 K. Mets 86.2 E. Smith 56.3 H. Wahl 116.5 Arkadiusz Pyrka
286.6 M. Pereira Lage A↓87’ 76.9 J. Irvine ↓68’ 66.5 J. Sands 166.5 J. Fujita
277.5 A. Hountondji ↓18’
  • 22N. Vasilj (G)6.0
  • 21L. Ritzka↓68’6.5
  • 3K. Mets6.0
  • 8E. Smith6.2
  • 5H. Wahl6.3
  • 11Arkadiusz Pyrka6.5
  • 28M. Pereira LageA↓87’6.6
  • 7J. Irvine↓68’6.9
  • 6J. Sands6.5
  • 16J. Fujita6.5
  • 27A. Hountondji↓18’7.5

Substitutes used

  • 10D. Sinani↑18’6.9
  • 23Louis Oppie↑68’6.0
  • 9A. Ceesay↑68’6.3
  • 24C. Metcalfe↑87’6.2

Unused: B. Voll, A. Dźwigała, E. Saliakas, R. Jones, M. Kaars

Coach: A. Blessin

Player stats

Top rated
L. DíazBayern München8.6
2nd
J. KimmichBayern München8.3
3rd
J. TahBayern München8.0

Bayern München

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Neuer G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 88% 26 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
T. Bischof M 90 0 0 2 (0) 1 91% 90 0 0 1/3 1/0 6.3
J. Tah D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 98% 162 1 1 0/0 1/1 8.0
M. Kim D 77 0 0 1 (0) 0 96% 111 1 0 0/0 1/0 7.9
K. Laimer M 46 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 41 1 0 1/2 0/0 5.9
A. Pavlović M 83 0 0 1 (0) 2 95% 155 0 3 1/1 0/1 7.9
J. Kimmich M 90 0 1 0 (0) 4 93% 150 0 0 0/0 0/2 8.3
L. Díaz F 90 1 1 1 (1) 3 89% 47 2 0 2/6 0/0 8.6
R. Guerreiro D 65 1 0 1 (1) 0 95% 43 0 0 2/3 0/1 7.2
Lennart Karl M 65 0 0 2 (0) 0 93% 42 0 1 2/5 1/1 6.2
H. Kane F 90 0 0 3 (0) 0 76% 21 0 0 0/1 1/0 6.3
M. Olise M 44 0 0 0 (0) 2 91% 35 1 1 2/6 0/1 7.2
J. Stanišić D 25 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 34 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
S. Gnabry F 25 0 0 1 (0) 0 69% 16 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
L. Goretzka M 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 16 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
N. Jackson F 7 1 0 1 (1) 0 50% 2 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.3

FC St. Pauli

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
N. Vasilj G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 52% 29 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.0
L. Ritzka D 68 0 0 0 (0) 0 63% 24 3 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
K. Mets D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 82% 22 1 1 0/0 2/0 6.0
E. Smith M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 87% 23 2 0 1/1 0/1 6.2
H. Wahl D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 14 2 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 62% 21 3 2 0/0 0/0 6.5
M. Pereira Lage M 87 0 1 0 (0) 3 65% 17 2 3 0/0 1/2 6.6
J. Irvine M 68 0 0 1 (0) 1 84% 19 2 4 0/1 2/1 6.9
J. Sands M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 71% 17 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
J. Fujita M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 70% 23 3 0 0/1 1/0 6.5
A. Hountondji F 18 1 0 1 (1) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
D. Sinani M 72 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 17 3 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
Louis Oppie D 22 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 6 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.0
A. Ceesay F 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
C. Metcalfe M 3 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.2

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.