1899 Hoffenheim vs 1. FC Heidenheim – 25 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 25 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim 9th · 10 pts · 7 played WLDLW

3–1Full time

1. FC Heidenheim 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.

1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 29). 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 113 km.

Away travel113 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

1899 Hoffenheim55%

Draw23%

1. FC Heidenheim21%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.09

1899 Hoffenheim54%

Draw25%

1. FC Heidenheim21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

1899 Hoffenheim56%

Draw24%

1. FC Heidenheim21%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.07

1899 Hoffenheim48%

Draw25%

1. FC Heidenheim27%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.22

1899 Hoffenheim54%

Draw25%

1. FC Heidenheim22%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.04

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sinsheim)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 56

Team strength

1899 Hoffenheim

1. FC Heidenheim

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

46 AttackIn forecast 48

43 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 Hoffenheim

1. FC Heidenheim

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

86% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.86 ShotsContext 11.71

4.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

38% On target shareContext 37%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

70% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 7%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.86

10.57 Shots allowedContext 15.14

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43

3.14 BlocksContext 2.86

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.86

68% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 43%

425 PassesContext 347

341 Accurate passesContext 270

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.76

15.14 FoulsContext 10.29

9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.80 ShotsContext 12.00

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

37% On target shareContext 37%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

69% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.90 BlocksContext 2.89

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

65% Save rateContext 67%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

419 PassesContext 373

335 Accurate passesContext 297

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.30 FoulsContext 9.70

8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km968 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel113 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1899 Hoffenheim	1. FC Heidenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Oct	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	968 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Baumann(G)

13Bernardo 21A. Hajdari 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

7L. Avdullahu 18W. Burger

29B. Toure 27A. Kramarić 19T. Lemperle

11F. Asllani

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

41D. Ramaj(G)

4T. Siersleben 5B. Gimber 6P. Mainka

19J. Föhrenbach 3J. Schöppner 30N. Dorsch 23O. Traoré

22A. Ibrahimović 21A. Beck

11B. Zivzivadze

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1899 Hoffenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

1899 Hoffenheim-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
1. FC Heidenheim+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.67

1. FC Heidenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 1899 Hoffenheim wins3 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

9 Mar 20251899 Hoffenheim1–11. FC Heidenheim
27 Oct 20241. FC Heidenheim0–01899 Hoffenheim
27 Jan 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11. FC Heidenheim
26 Aug 20231. FC Heidenheim2–31899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1899 Hoffenheim	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	0.86
Conceded per game	1.71	1.86
Match goals	3.43	2.71	2.97
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	57%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	1899 Hoffenheim	1. FC Heidenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	0.86
Conceded per game	1.71	1.86
Match goals	3.43	2.71	2.97
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	57%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1899 Hoffenheim	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.71	5.43
Corners conceded	6.43	2.71
Match total	12.14	8.14	9.95
Over 8.5	100% 7/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	86% 6/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.57	3.29
Match total	3.57	5.29	4.52
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	0% 0/7	71% 5/7

	1899 Hoffenheim	1. FC Heidenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	5.10
Corners conceded	5.80	2.80
Match total	11.20	7.90	9.95
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.10	2.80
Match total	2.70	4.40	4.52
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 4.31

Red cards0.18league 0.22

Cards 5+39%league 44%

Fouls23.2league 22.8

Penalties0.32league 0.41

Home wins52%league 41%

1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D9 May 25A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
L21 Sep 24A · Union Berlin1–23
W3 Mar 24H · Werder Bremen2–15
W8 Dec 23H · VfL Bochum3–13
L21 Oct 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–33

1. FC Heidenheim1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Jan 25A · Werder Bremen3–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.