1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayern München – 20 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 20 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim 6th · 6 pts · 3 played WLW

1–4Full time

Bayern München 1st · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 44). Bayern München usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 6.9 and had to travel 234 km.

Away travel234 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

1899 Hoffenheim12%

Draw18%

Bayern München70%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.49

1899 Hoffenheim14%

Draw21%

Bayern München65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.08

1899 Hoffenheim13%

Draw19%

Bayern München69%

Expected goals 0.95 – 2.37

1899 Hoffenheim9%

Draw14%

Bayern München77%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.79

1899 Hoffenheim13%

Draw20%

Bayern München67%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.19

Over 2.5 67% Both score 58% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sinsheim)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 51

Team strength

1899 Hoffenheim

Bayern München

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

46 AttackIn forecast 96

43 DefenceIn forecast 90

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 Hoffenheim

Bayern München

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.67

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 2.55

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.54

+0.92 Goals minus xGContext +2.12

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 67%

11.67 ShotsContext 19.67

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33

49% On target shareContext 53%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

61% Box shareContext 67%

20% ConversionContext 24%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.00 Shots allowedContext 10.33

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.67

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.33

67% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 64%

440 PassesContext 644

354 Accurate passesContext 579

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.58

14.33 FoulsContext 11.67

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.66 Goals minus xGContext +1.47

90% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.90 ShotsContext 17.90

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

41% On target shareContext 42%

8.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

67% Box shareContext 65%

16% ConversionContext 20%

3.38 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.00 Shots allowedContext 9.40

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.10 BlocksContext 2.56

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

60% Save rateContext 81%

46% PossessionIn forecast 63%

396 PassesContext 616

317 Accurate passesContext 552

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.36

12.90 FoulsContext 9.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km966 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bayern München

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel234 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep	6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	234 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	966 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1O. Baumann(G)

13Bernardo 21A. Hajdari 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

22A. Prass 18W. Burger 7L. Avdullahu 29B. Toure

10M. Damar 11F. Asllani

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

27K. Laimer 3M. Kim 4J. Tah 23S. Boey

45A. Pavlović 8L. Goretzka

14L. Díaz 9H. Kane 42Lennart Karl

11N. Jackson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1899 Hoffenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.13 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bayern München Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

1899 Hoffenheim-0.5 pp
Draw-0.9 pp
Bayern München+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Bayern München · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 1899 Hoffenheim wins2 draws5 Bayern München wins

Goals per game0.75 – 2.75 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%

17 May 20251899 Hoffenheim0–4Bayern München
15 Jan 2025Bayern München5–01899 Hoffenheim
18 May 20241899 Hoffenheim4–2Bayern München
12 Jan 2024Bayern München3–01899 Hoffenheim
15 Apr 2023Bayern München1–11899 Hoffenheim
22 Oct 20221899 Hoffenheim0–2Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	4.67
Conceded per game	2.00	0.67
Match goals	4.33	5.33	3.47
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	67%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayern München	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	4.67
Conceded per game	2.00	0.67
Match goals	4.33	5.33	3.47
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	67%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	5.00
Corners conceded	6.67	5.00
Match total	10.00	10.00	9.96
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.33
Opponent cards	1.33	2.00
Match total	3.33	5.33	4.63
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayern München	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.60
Corners conceded	5.50	3.90
Match total	9.20	8.50	9.96
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.90
Match total	3.30	3.90	4.63
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 4.25

Red cards0.22league 0.36

Cards 5+37%league 50%

Fouls23.0league 23.0

Penalties0.31league 0.50

Home wins49%league 43%

1899 Hoffenheim5 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L5 Apr 25A · RB Leipzig1–34
L17 Feb 24H · Union Berlin0–13
W26 Aug 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–25
L21 Jan 23A · Union Berlin1–31
W13 Feb 22H · Arminia Bielefeld2–02

Bayern München4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W23 Sep 23H · VfL Bochum7–00
W8 Nov 22H · Werder Bremen6–10
D14 May 22A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
W20 Feb 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.