1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1899 Hoffenheim12.4%fair odds 8.03
Draw17.6%fair odds 5.68
Bayern München69.9%fair odds 1.43
Expected goals0.98 – 2.49total 3.47
Likeliest score0–29.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–29.7%10.34
- 1–29.5%10.58
- 0–38.0%12.46
- 1–18.0%12.50
- 1–37.8%12.75
- 0–17.4%13.57
- 0–45.0%20.03
- 1–44.9%20.49
- 2–24.6%21.63
- 2–33.8%26.08
Winning margin
1.1%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 91.29
3.1%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 31.88
8.2%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 12.17
17.6%
Draw
fair 5.68
21.5%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.64
20.3%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.92
28.1%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 3.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Bayern München goals
8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 12.4% | 13.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 17.6% | 19.9% | -2.3 pp |
| Bayern München win | 69.9% | 66.6% | +3.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 59.2% | +8.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 52.5% | +5.1 pp |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 0.98 | 0.88 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.49 | 2.19 | +0.30 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1899 Hoffenheim win12.4%8.03
- Draw17.6%5.68
- Bayern München win69.9%1.43
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw30.1%3.33
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Bayern München82.4%1.21
- Double chance Bayern München or draw87.6%1.14
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim15.1%6.62
- Draw no bet Bayern München84.9%1.18
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.5%1.16
- Over 2.567.3%1.49
- Over 3.545.6%2.19
- Over 4.526.8%3.73
- Under 1.513.5%7.38
- Under 2.532.7%3.06
- Under 3.554.4%1.84
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.74
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.549.6%2.02
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes7.7%13.03
- Draw and yes14.1%7.10
- Bayern München win and yes35.9%2.79
Team goals
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.562.4%1.60
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.525.6%3.91
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.57.6%13.12
- Bayern München over 0.591.7%1.09
- Bayern München over 1.571.0%1.41
- Bayern München over 2.545.3%2.21
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet8.3%12.05
- Bayern München clean sheet37.6%2.66
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil4.8%20.94
- Bayern München win to nil34.1%2.93
Handicap
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.54.2%23.63
- 1899 Hoffenheim −2.51.1%91.29
- Bayern München +1.595.8%1.04
- Bayern München +2.598.9%1.01
- Bayern München −1.548.4%2.07
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.551.6%1.94
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right67.9%
BTTS called right60.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.1% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.8% | 14.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 53.9% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 10 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4923 | 0.5045 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| Favourite won | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 10 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗FC St. Pauli 2–1 FC Augsburg36·27·37
- ✓Bayern München 5–0 Hamburger SV87·9·4
- ✗Union Berlin 2–4 1899 Hoffenheim44·26·30
- ✓1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 Borussia Dortmund15·21·64
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 0–1 RB Leipzig42·26·33
- ✗VfL Wolfsburg 3–3 1.FC Köln50·25·25
- ✗SC Freiburg 3–1 VfB Stuttgart37·26·37
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt54·23·22
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.