1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
6th · 51 pts · 29 played
WDLLD
2–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 64 pts · 29 played
WWWWL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Borussia Dortmund. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7.8 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim26%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund50%
1899 Hoffenheim28%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund45%
1899 Hoffenheim26%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund51%
1899 Hoffenheim20%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund58%
1899 Hoffenheim26%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund49%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 124
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
46
AttackIn forecast
69
43
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
1.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
83%
Scored inContext
97%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
13.62
ShotsContext
12.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
37%
On target shareContext
35%
9.61
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
69%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.14
Shots allowedContext
10.21
4.34
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
3.44
BlocksContext
2.88
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
69%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
464
PassesContext
483
374
Accurate passesContext
408
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.38
FoulsContext
10.79
8.69
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.10
ShotsContext
11.90
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
72%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.78
BlocksContext
3.25
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
58%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
475
PassesContext
454
384
Accurate passesContext
379
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.50
FoulsContext
10.60
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel271 km655 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 355 km | 655 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
17C. Chukwuemeka
21Fábio Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-5
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 1.21
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.07points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-1
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 51 of 84 · 1.82 per game | 61 of 84 · 2.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws7 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.22 – 2.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 7 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–01899 Hoffenheim
- 26 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia Dortmund
- 15 Dec 2024Borussia Dortmund1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 25 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Sep 20231899 Hoffenheim1–3Borussia Dortmund
- 25 Feb 20231899 Hoffenheim0–1Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.97 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 3.07 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 55% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 52% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 3% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.41 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.32 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 9.78 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 21/29 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 66% 19/29 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 1.66 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.66 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 17/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 7/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.10 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.75
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 20.4
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins43%league 44%
1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D20 Dec 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–02
- W23 Aug 25A · Bayer Leverkusen2–14
- L1 Dec 24A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W16 Sep 23A · 1.FC Köln3–14
- L2 Sep 22A · Borussia Dortmund0–14
Borussia Dortmund14 with this referee
Record8-3-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W7 Mar 26A · 1.FC Köln2–11
- W13 Jan 26H · Werder Bremen3–02
- W21 Sep 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- W20 Apr 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21
- L8 Feb 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim29 games · scored 57 · conceded 43
4
8
0-15
9
8
16-30
17
6
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
9
8
76-90
Borussia Dortmund29 games · scored 60 · conceded 29
7
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
15
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
18
9
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
