1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 50 pts · 27 played
DLWDL
1–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05
11th · 30 pts · 27 played
DDDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FSV Mainz 05. 1899 Hoffenheim had 14.8 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 13 and had to travel 92 km.
Away travel92 kmRest days14.8 · 13Matches / 14d0 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim41%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0533%
1899 Hoffenheim47%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0527%
1899 Hoffenheim41%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0533%
1899 Hoffenheim34%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0541%
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0534%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 102
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimFSV Mainz 05
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
46
AttackIn forecast
68
43
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimFSV Mainz 05
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
81%
Scored inContext
67%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
13.59
ShotsContext
10.93
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.73
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.65
Shots in the boxContext
8.69
70%
Box shareContext
75%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.61
12.07
Shots allowedContext
14.26
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.52
BlocksContext
4.08
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
461
PassesContext
354
372
Accurate passesContext
264
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.37
FoulsContext
10.59
8.93
Fouls sufferedContext
9.89
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.80
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
37%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
73%
Box shareContext
78%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.78
BlocksContext
3.20
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
77%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
459
PassesContext
341
370
Accurate passesContext
258
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.30
FoulsContext
10.70
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel92 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 92 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
22A. Prass
11F. Asllani
6G. Prömel
29B. Toure
19T. Lemperle
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
20P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-4
- Scored
- 2.15
- Conceded
- 1.15
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | D 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 78 · 1.88 per game | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins2 draws5 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.56
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 21 Nov 2025FSV Mainz 051–11899 Hoffenheim
- 12 Apr 20251899 Hoffenheim2–0FSV Mainz 05
- 1 Dec 2024FSV Mainz 052–01899 Hoffenheim
- 13 Apr 2024FSV Mainz 054–11899 Hoffenheim
- 26 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 4 Mar 2023FSV Mainz 051–01899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.78 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 52% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 59% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 33% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.90 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.07 | 4.28 | |
| Match total | 10.51 | 9.36 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 20/27 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 18/27 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 14/27 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.37 | 4.07 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 5/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 8.10 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.73
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls22.1league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins55%league 45%
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- D15 Dec 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- D6 Oct 24A · VfB Stuttgart1–14
- D3 May 24H · RB Leipzig1–11
- W6 May 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–13
- L12 Mar 23A · SC Freiburg1–25
FSV Mainz 054 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Aug 24H · Union Berlin1–11
- L16 Sep 23H · VfB Stuttgart1–31
- L22 Apr 22A · VfL Wolfsburg0–53
- W14 Dec 21H · Hertha BSC4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim27 games · scored 54 · conceded 39
4
5
0-15
8
8
16-30
15
6
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
9
7
76-90
FSV Mainz 0527 games · scored 33 · conceded 42
4
9
0-15
4
5
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
7
15
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
4
31-45
8
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
