1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 50 pts · 27 played
DLWDL
1–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05
11th · 30 pts · 27 played
DDDWW
1899 Hoffenheim41.0%fair odds 2.44
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
FSV Mainz 0533.3%fair odds 3.00
Expected goals1.55 – 1.38total 2.94
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.33
- 2–18.9%11.29
- 1–27.9%12.69
- 1–07.6%13.09
- 0–16.7%14.86
- 2–06.4%15.61
- 2–26.1%16.34
- 0–05.9%16.92
- 0–25.1%19.73
- 3–14.6%21.80
Winning margin
8.2%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 12.15
12.4%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 8.05
20.3%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 4.93
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
18.0%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 5.56
9.8%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 10.18
5.5%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 18.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 41.0% | 39.4% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.8% | -1.1 pp |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 33.3% | 33.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 51.7% | +4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.7% | 56.2% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.55 | 1.43 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.38 | 1.31 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1899 Hoffenheim win41.0%2.44
- Draw25.7%3.89
- FSV Mainz 05 win33.3%3.00
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw66.7%1.50
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or FSV Mainz 0574.3%1.35
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw59.0%1.69
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim55.1%1.81
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0544.9%2.23
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.2%1.78
- Over 3.533.8%2.95
- Over 4.517.4%5.74
- Under 1.520.3%4.93
- Under 2.543.8%2.29
- Under 3.566.2%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes59.7%1.68
- No40.3%2.48
- Yes and over 2.547.7%2.10
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes21.8%4.59
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes18.1%5.52
Team goals
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.578.9%1.27
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.546.0%2.17
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.520.5%4.88
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.574.9%1.34
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.540.2%2.49
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.516.2%6.16
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet25.1%3.98
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet21.1%4.73
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil19.2%5.21
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil15.2%6.57
Handicap
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.520.7%4.84
- 1899 Hoffenheim −2.58.2%12.15
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.579.3%1.26
- FSV Mainz 05 +2.591.8%1.09
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.515.3%6.52
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.584.7%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored243
Favourite won57.2%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right60.1%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.3% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.1% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 196 of 243 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5493 | 0.5458 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.7% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 196 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt46·28·26
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SV72·17·11
- ✗1.FC Köln 3–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach37·28·35
- ✗1. FC Heidenheim 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen14·20·66
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Werder Bremen31·26·43
- ✓Bayern München 4–0 Union Berlin91·6·3
- ✓RB Leipzig 5–0 1899 Hoffenheim52·23·25
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 1–0 RB Leipzig44·23·33
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.