1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.9 and had to travel 57 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart38%
1899 Hoffenheim35%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart39%
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart38%
1899 Hoffenheim31%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart46%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart38%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
25°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 39%
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 112
Team strength
1899 Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
46
AttackIn forecast
70
43
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
16.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
57%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
19.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
5.00
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
50%
Save rateContext
57%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
495
PassesContext
448
413
Accurate passesContext
365
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.50
FoulsContext
11.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.40
ShotsContext
15.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
62%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.30
BlocksContext
4.75
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
54%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
472
PassesContext
477
389
Accurate passesContext
398
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.90
FoulsContext
9.80
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
LL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km464 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.4 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 464 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
14A. Daghim
10A. Hložek
20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
1F. Bredlow(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
7M. Mittelstädt
6A. Stiller
21G. Prömel
4J. Vagnoman
10C. Führich
9E. Demirović
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 2–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins6 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.70
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 2 May 20261899 Hoffenheim3–3VfB Stuttgart
- 20 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–01899 Hoffenheim
- 23 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1VfB Stuttgart
- 6 Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 16 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 28 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart2–31899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 5.50 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 4.30 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 8.50 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 15.00 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.70 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.47
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+38%league 21%
Fouls20.6league 23.2
Penalties0.18league 0.05
Home wins42%league 53%
1899 Hoffenheim10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Mar 26A · RB Leipzig0–51
- W24 Jan 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–14
- W19 Oct 25A · FC St. Pauli3–03
- W12 Apr 25H · FSV Mainz 052–04
- D8 Dec 24H · SC Freiburg1–11
VfB Stuttgart6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Nov 25A · RB Leipzig1–32
- W30 Aug 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–02
- D28 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W27 Jan 24H · RB Leipzig5–21
- W21 May 23A · FSV Mainz 054–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart2 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
8
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 23 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
