1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1899 Hoffenheim38.4%fair odds 2.61
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.10
VfB Stuttgart37.3%fair odds 2.68
Expected goals1.63 – 1.61total 3.24
Likeliest score1–110.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%9.23
- 2–18.4%11.91
- 1–28.3%12.11
- 2–26.7%14.84
- 1–05.9%17.06
- 0–15.8%17.36
- 2–05.2%19.13
- 0–25.1%19.76
- 3–14.6%21.90
- 0–04.5%22.36
Winning margin
8.0%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 12.57
11.6%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 8.64
18.8%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 5.31
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.10
18.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 5.40
11.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 8.92
7.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 13.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 38.4% | 37.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.0% | -0.6 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 37.3% | 37.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 60.0% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.8% | 62.7% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.63 | 1.56 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.61 | 1.54 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1899 Hoffenheim win38.4%2.61
- Draw24.4%4.10
- VfB Stuttgart win37.3%2.68
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw62.7%1.59
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart75.6%1.32
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw61.6%1.62
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim50.7%1.97
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart49.3%2.03
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.9%1.19
- Over 2.562.8%1.59
- Over 3.540.6%2.46
- Over 4.522.6%4.42
- Under 1.516.1%6.21
- Under 2.537.2%2.69
- Under 3.559.4%1.68
Both teams to score
- Yes64.8%1.54
- No35.2%2.84
- Yes and over 2.554.0%1.85
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes22.8%4.39
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes22.2%4.51
Team goals
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.580.4%1.24
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.548.5%2.06
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.522.5%4.45
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.579.9%1.25
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.547.7%2.10
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.521.8%4.59
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet20.1%4.98
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet19.6%5.11
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil15.6%6.41
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil15.1%6.63
Handicap
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.519.5%5.12
- 1899 Hoffenheim −2.58.0%12.57
- VfB Stuttgart +1.580.5%1.24
- VfB Stuttgart +2.592.0%1.09
- VfB Stuttgart −1.518.7%5.34
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.581.3%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right78.9%
BTTS called right57.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 43.4% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 57.1% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 64.8% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.2% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5931 | 0.6103 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.