Bundesliga Gameweek 33 Sat, May 9 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 6th · 58 pts · 32 played
1–0Full time
Werder Bremen 15th · 32 pts · 32 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1899 Hoffenheim61.7%fair odds 1.62
Draw20.2%fair odds 4.95
Werder Bremen18.1%fair odds 5.52
Expected goals2.28 – 1.18total 3.46
Likeliest score2–19.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1899 Hoffenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Werder Bremen →0123456+
03.63.32.20.90.30.10.0
16.78.95.02.00.60.10.0
28.29.65.72.20.70.20.0
36.27.34.31.70.50.10.0
43.54.22.51.00.30.10.0
51.61.91.10.40.10.00.0
6+0.91.00.60.20.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.6%10.37
  • 1–18.9%11.22
  • 2–08.2%12.20
  • 3–17.3%13.65
  • 1–06.7%14.83
  • 3–06.2%16.06
  • 2–25.7%17.62
  • 1–25.0%20.08
  • 3–24.3%23.19
  • 4–14.2%23.95

Winning margin

21.4% 1899 Hoffenheim by 3+ fair 4.67
18.5% 1899 Hoffenheim by 2 fair 5.41
21.8% 1899 Hoffenheim by 1 fair 4.59
20.2% Draw fair 4.95
11.0% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 9.05
4.9% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 20.30
2.1% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 46.59

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+

1899 Hoffenheim goals

10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+

Werder Bremen goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1899 Hoffenheim win 61.7% 59.7% +2.0 pp
Draw 20.2% 21.8% -1.6 pp
Werder Bremen win 18.1% 18.5% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 67.1% 60.4% +6.7 pp
Both teams score 62.5% 57.8% +4.8 pp
Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim 2.28 2.06 +0.22
Expected goals Werder Bremen 1.18 1.07 +0.11

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1899 Hoffenheim win61.7%1.62
  • Draw20.2%4.95
  • Werder Bremen win18.1%5.52
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw81.9%1.22
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Werder Bremen79.8%1.25
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw38.3%2.61
  • Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim77.3%1.29
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen22.7%4.40

Goals

  • Over 0.596.4%1.04
  • Over 1.586.4%1.16
  • Over 2.567.1%1.49
  • Over 3.545.4%2.20
  • Over 4.526.6%3.76
  • Under 1.513.6%7.35
  • Under 2.532.9%3.04
  • Under 3.554.6%1.83

Both teams to score

  • Yes62.5%1.60
  • No37.5%2.67
  • Yes and over 2.553.6%1.86
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes34.5%2.90
  • Draw and yes16.6%6.02
  • Werder Bremen win and yes11.5%8.71

Team goals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.589.8%1.11
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.566.4%1.51
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.539.8%2.51
  • Werder Bremen over 0.569.2%1.45
  • Werder Bremen over 1.532.9%3.04
  • Werder Bremen over 2.511.6%8.65
  • 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet30.8%3.24
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet10.2%9.77
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil27.2%3.67
  • Werder Bremen win to nil6.6%15.07

Handicap

  • 1899 Hoffenheim −1.539.9%2.51
  • 1899 Hoffenheim −2.521.4%4.67
  • Werder Bremen +1.560.1%1.66
  • Werder Bremen +2.578.6%1.27
  • Werder Bremen −1.57.1%14.14
  • 1899 Hoffenheim +1.592.9%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored289 Favourite won55.7% Avg chance given to result43.0% 1X2 Brier0.568 Over 2.5 called right61.9% BTTS called right59.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3838.3%34.2%
40–50%9145.0%46.2%
50–60%7555.1%60.0%
60–70%4564.7%66.7%
70–80%2774.1%77.8%
80%+1387.2%76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 240 of 289 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.56280.5582
Avg chance given to result43.3%42.7%
Favourite won56.7%55.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 289 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.